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UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington continues on the main card with a fight in the co-main event for the men's flyweight championship between the newly crowned champion Alexandre Pantoja and familiar foe and No. one contender Brandon Royval. Pantoja is coming off his dominant title win against former two-time champion Brandon Moreno meanwhile, Royval is coming off a first-round knockout against Matheus Nicolau coming into his first-ever title fight. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Pantoja-Royval prediction and pick.
Alexandre Pantoja (26-5) had a long road to fight for the flyweight championship but he made the most of it when he got the opportunity. He dominated former champion Brandon Moreno for a third time and now will get to defend his title for the first time against Brandon Royval whom he has already submitted back in August 2021 and will be looking to continue that trend when he takes the center of the octagon this weekend at UFC 296.
Brandon Royval (15-6) is now 5-2 in his UFC career with his only losses coming to the former champion Brandon Moreno and the current champion Alexandre Pantoja. Since his loss to Pantoja, Royval has won three straight with his most recent win coming against Matheus Nicolau whom he knocked out in the first round en route to his first-ever title shot this weekend live at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Odds
Alexandre Pantoja: -192
Brandon Royval: +160
Over 2.5 rounds: +124
Under 2.5 rounds: -160
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Why Alexandre Pantoja Will Win
Alexandre Pantoja fought tooth and nail to get his shot at the flyweight title. He fought the best of the best ever since his time on The Ultimate Fighter Season 24 back in 2016 to now where he amassed a 9-3 record which set up his title fight against Brandon Moreno. Pantoja's heart and resilience are what kept him going in that fight, even when he looked like he was exhausted he was able to take Moreno down and control him en route to a split-decision victory.
He now gets to defend his flyweight title for the first time against Brandon Royval whom he has already submitted via rear-naked choke in the second round of their Fight Night fight back in August 2021. This is certainly not the same Royval as he has progressed over the last two years and is very dangerous everywhere this fight goes. With that said, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt will have the upper hand on the mat, and if he can take down and dominate someone as skilled as Moreno he can do the same here and be successful in his first title defense.
Why Brandon Royval Will Win
Brandon Royval has been one of the most dangerous fighters in the flyweight division since making his UFC debut back in May 2020 when he submitted Tim Elliott. He has a 5-2 record in the biggest MMA promotion with his two lone losses coming against a former two-time champion and the current champion.
Royval is a very opportunistic fighter if you give him a chance he will capitalize on your mistake. Of his five wins with the UFC, four of them have come inside the distance with two of those wins coming in the first round. While Royval is a submission threat if it hits the mat, he has a big advantage on the feet where he can utilize his size and length to pick apart Pantoja like he was doing early on in their first encounter. If Royval can minimize his mistakes and keep this fight on the feet, he has a real chance of scoring the upset to become the next flyweight champion.
Final Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a sensational co-main event as we lead up to our headliner for the welterweight championship. These are the two best flyweight fighters in the UFC right now. Current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja may be at a disadvantage on the feet and has the cardio woes that Royval could take over down the stretch but it'll be the grappling of Pantoja that will be the equalizer. Ultimately, things will get a bit dicey on the feet until Pantoja can get ahold of Royval to then drag him to the back where he will eventually take his back and sink in his patented rear-naked choke for a second time and to defend his flyweight title for the first time at UFC 296.
Final Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Prediction & Pick: Alexandre Pantoja (-192); Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
