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We're set for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 297 from Toronto, Ontario, Canada as the action on the Prelims continues to roll on. This next bout takes us to the Welterweight (170) Division as fellow countryman Yohan Lainesse takes on the fresh prospect of Sam Patterson. Check out our UFC odds series for our Lainesse-Patterson prediction and pick.
Yahon Lainesse (9-2) comes into this fight at 1-2 in his UFC bouts thus far. He's faced very tough opponents in Gabe Green and Mike Malott, coming up short in both of those contests. He was forced to withdraw from his last contest against Matthew Semelsberger, so we're hoping he's ready and healthy to take down Patterson during this close fight on the betting line. Lainesse stands 5'11” with a 75.5-inch reach.
Sam Patterson (10-2-1) lost his UFC debut and will still be looking for his first official win under the promotion. His loss came to Yanal Ashmouz as he was TKO'd in the first round of their fight. After a canceled bout with Nasrat Haqparast that would've immediately thrown him to the wolves, Patterson takes this fight against an opponent much closer to him in skill. Patterson stands 6'3″ with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 297 Odds: Yohan Lainesse-Sam Patterson Odds
Yohan Lainesse: -142
Sam Patterson: +120
Over 1.5 rounds: +114
Under 1.5 rounds: -145
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Why Yohan Lainesse Will Win
Yohan Lainesse got a tough draw his last time out when he was bested by Mike Malott and an arm triangle choke in the first round. It certainly wasn't the result he wanted to get, but it provided Lainesse with a learning moment and a wake-up call that his ground game needs some work. Six of his wins are by knockout and he fights behind a traditional boxing style. He lands his strikes at a 42% rate, which makes him a fairly accurate striker in relation to his opponent. Lainesse also has a great 80% takedown defense rate so expect him to keep this fight standing as he turns away any desperation shots from Patterson.
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To win this fight as the small betting favorite, Lainesse will have to be perfect in controlling the distance throughout this fight. He's at a significant height and reach disadvantage, so he'll want to avoid the long, looping shots over the top from Patterson. Lainesse has also been caught with his feet stationary when he's swinging in the pocket, so foot movement and movement around the octagon will become a huge theme in him controlling this fight. If Lainesse can work his way inside and damage Patterson with some hard hooks and uppercuts, he should win this fight as the slight favorite.
Why Sam Patterson Will Win
Sam Patterson will be appearing in his second UFC fight following his debut loss to Yanal Ashmouz. Patterson was a solid betting favorite coming into that fight and he certainly didn't take proper stock of his opponent. Patterson typically keeps his hands low at his sides and against Ashmouz, he paid the ultimate price as a right hook connected flush and sat him down. In the UFC, defense is one of the most important aspects of success and Patterson will certainly have to work on his striking defense around his head. If he's able to parry Lainesse's lazy strikes and counter with his jab down the middle, he could see success by using his significant reach advantage.
Patterson will have to be much more patient this time around, but he won't be able to waste much time feeling out his opponent. Yohan Lainesse does a great job of pressuring forward and putting striking combinations in front of his opponent. Patterson will have to strategically keep his feet moving and circle away from Lainesse as he looks for the perfect counter shot. Look for Patterson to use his reach early and try to gauge a safe distance between him and his opponent.
Final Yohan Lainesse-Sam Patterson Prediction & Pick
This should be a good fight in terms of skills and with both guys getting finished in their last fight, this fight will have some added motivation behind it for the both of them. Yohan Lainesse is a very consistent and leveled fighter in terms of knowing what you'll get from him when he steps out. Patterson is the more gifted athlete and has a better physical structure, but he hasn't been able to use his skills to their fullest just yet.
I expect a big jump in skill from Sam Patterson compared to when he made his debut. He should have learned his lesson on keeping his defensive guard up, so I expect a much more precise, yet aggressive game from him this time around. Still, the crowd will be behind Lainesse and it'll be interesting to see how the Canadian momentum moves throughout this card. For our prediction, let's roll with Sam Patterson as the slight underdog.
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Final Yohan Lainesse-Sam Patterson Prediction & Pick: Sam Patterson (+120)
