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The time is finally here for the Main Event of UFC Vegas 75 where we bring you a prediction and pick for the headlining fight in the Middleweight (185 lb) Division. Two of the division's toughest fighters will square off as No. 3 Marvin Vettori faces No. 4 Jared Cannonier. This fight has serious implications for the next possible title shot! Check out our UFC odds series for our Vettori-Cannonier prediction and pick.
Marvin Vettori is 19-5-1 as a mixed martial artist and has gone 9-4-1 in the UFC. He's worked his way up to being a mainstay at the top of the Middleweight Division and will look to once again challenge for a title. Vettori is 5-2 over his lasts seven fights, with his only two losses coming at the hands of Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. Vettori looks to put away the No. 4 contender in Cannonier and once again earn a shot at the belt. Vettori stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Jared Cannonier is 16-6 as a professional fighter and has gone 9-6 within the UFC. Cannonier has finally found his home at middleweight and has been putting away some of the top contenders as of late. Like Vettori, Cannonier is also 5-2 in his last seven fights with two losses coming from Adesanya and Whittaker. Cannonier won his last fight against Sean Strickland via split decision, leaving the UFC no choice but to give him Vettori next. Cannonier stands 5'11” with a 77.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 75 Odds: Marvin Vettori-Jared Cannonier Odds
Marvin Vettori: -118
Jared Cannonier: -104
Over (4.5) rounds: -215
Under (4.5) rounds: +166
How to Watch Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Marvin Vettori Will Win
Marvin Vettori looked extremely impressive in his fight against Roman Dolidze, winning by unanimous decision and fending off a very hungry challenging opponent. The difference for Vettori has been his consistency. He fights a similar game plan each time and it's been able to work against everyone but the Champion and top contender Whittaker. Vettori will lead with a stiff jab and rip power combinations when he's in-close. He has a lot of power and while he only has two KO wins, Vettori uses his striking to set up his grappling where he truly shines. Vettori is a dominant wrestler and will have the advantage if he's able to get this fight to the mat.
Vettori will have to push the pace for five rounds if he wants to beat Cannonier with a decision. We've seen Cannonier freeze up in the cage before, so it'll be vital for Vettori to continue pressuring him at all points of the fight. Of the two, Vettori may have the better gas tank and will look to pour it on with his boxing in the later rounds. Vettori should look to control Cannonier on the ground for a round and see how much success he has in the wrestling. From there, Vettori will have the edge in chasing submissions with nine of his wins in the same fashion. If Vettori becomes the more physical opponent, he should be able to cruise to victory if he can avoid Cannonier's power shots.
Why Jared Cannonier Will Win
Jared Cannonier hasn't looked like the destroyer we've known him to be. His last two fights, and his bout against Adesanya especially, saw Cannonier fight with a new approach and be a lot more picky with his strikes. It didn't work in his favor against Adesanya, but he squeaked out a win over the constantly-active Sean Strickland. For Cannonier to win this fight, he'll have to be a lot more aggressive in finding his significant strikes. Cannonier is one of the more powerful punches in the UFC, so it'll take a lot of patience from him to find the perfect shot to sit Vettori down. From there, Cannonier has a great wrestling base and while he doesn't use it much in his fights, would greatly benefit from it in this one.
Cannonier can win this fight with controlled aggression. Vettori will be the one marching forward and dictating the pace, so it'll be up to Cannonier to meet him in the middle with leg kicks and combinations. If he's smart, he'll begin to pepper Vettori's legs early in hopes of slowing him down over five rounds. Cannonier has been known to slow down by the fifth round, but he won't be able to take any breaks against the high motor of Vettori. To win, Cannonier will have to dig deep and find the intensity that got him here in the first place. Look to see a new-look Jared Cannonier in this one.
Final Marvin Vettori-Jared Cannonier Prediction & Pick
The odds makers made this fight close to a pick'em and rightfully so. Both fighter have similar resumes and it was only a matter of time before they would face off for a top contender spot. Vettori is extremely consistent with his striking and will look to close the distance with force. Cannonier is the harder-hitter of the two and win have many opportunities to shut the lights out with one punch. While Cannonier's takedown defense is at 64%, the difference in this fight may be the wrestling for Vettori. He's eager to relentlessly search the takedown and could dictate the fight if he's able to land. From there, it'll be a matter of whether Cannonier can get up and create some offense himself. For the prediction, let's go with Vettori's wrestling to reign supreme as he cruised to another 50-45 type of decision win.
Final Marvin Vettori-Jared Cannonier Prediction & Pick: Marvin Vettori (-118)
