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The UFC is back after an eventful weekend to bring yet another slate of fights for Saturday night at UFC Vegas 77. Our predictions and picks continue with this next bout in the Lightweight (155 lb) Division. Kill Cliff FC's Evan Elder will take on Mexico's Genaro Valdez. Check out our UFC odds series for our Elder-Valdez prediction and pick.
Evan Elder is 7-2 as a professional fighter and has gone 0-2 so far in the UFC. He had a lackluster debut against Preston Parsons on short notice and dropped a unanimous decision loss. He looked decent in his last fight, but a nasty cut above his eye forced a doctor's stoppage as Elder was handed another loss. He'll have his back against the wall in this must-win situation. Elder stands 5'10” with a 72-inch reach.
Genaro Valdez is 10-2 as a professional fighter and has gone 0-2 in the UFC since earning a contract on DWCS. He was steamrolled by Matt Frevola in his UFC debut and lost his last fight via unanimous decision to a revitalized Natan Levy. In need of a win, Valdez will come into this fight as the sizable underdog, a spot that's been profitable over the last few cards. Valdez stands 5'9″ with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 77 Odds: Evan Elder-Genaro Valdez Odds
Evan Elder: -330
Genaro Valdez: +240
Over (1.5) rounds: -142
Under (1.5) rounds: +112
How to Watch Evan Elder vs. Genaro Valdez
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Evan Elder Will Win
Evan Elder's performances in the UFC have been much better than his record indicates. His debut fight was in a higher weight class and he stepped in on short notice against a much bigger opponent. Still, he fared well and was able to avoid the finish. He was winning his last fight against a very talented Nazim Sadykhov through two rounds, but the cut he sustained was too deep for the doctors to allow the fight to continue. Elder was hardly phased by the cut and could have kept fighting, a true sign of his tough-nosed spirit and solid chin.
Elder is a very good striker and has a ton of power behind his shots. He uses his reach well with his jabs and can knock opponents off balance with his hooks to the head. He's very aggressive and will continue to march forward even when getting hit. He's been rocked a few times, but he's always shown a great chin and wears it well. Elder should look to avoid planting his feet and keep his movement high. He'll be the more athletic grappler if this one hits the ground, but he should have enough advantages in the striking to keep this one standing.
Why Genaro Valdez Will Win
Genaro Valdez comes in as a very tough fighter with a solid chin and will welcome a slugfest against Evan Elder. Valdez starts fast and crowds his opponents with his boxing movement. He leads with a long straight-right and will use front kicks up the middle to sustain distance between his opponent. He's very aggressive right out of the gate so look for him to start the same way against Elder and bring the action to him. Valdez has been hit hard and stunned in both of his fights thus far, so he may want to dial it back against a power puncher like Elder.
To win this fight, Genaro Valdez will have to slow the pace down and let the fight come to him. If he rushes Elder too quickly, he could get with a counter-hook. He was knocked down six times in his debut against Matt Frevola, so he should seriously look to play a more defensive game against a similar striker like Elder. As the big underdog, it'll take an inspired performance from Valdez to improve and get his first UFC win.
Final Evan Elder-Genaro Valdez Prediction & Pick
Genaro Valdez is as tough as they come, but the reality is that even the toughest fighters can't sustain being knocked down multiple times over the course of each fight. Valdez will be most dangerous from the opening of the fight, but it may be a matter of time before Evan Elder gets the timing down and lands a huge shot of his own. Elder is the all-around better fighter and should be the right side in this one. For value, let's go with his finishing prop to win this by KO.
Final Evan Elder-Genaro Valdez Prediction & Pick: Evan Elder (-330); Wins by KO/TKO (+130)
