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The UFC is back in Las Vegas following UFC 295 and the action keeps coming with our UFC Vegas 82 predictions and picks. This next bout takes place in the Featherweight (145) Division between prospects Jeka Saragih of Indonesia and Lucas Alexander of Brazil. Check out our UFC odds series for our Saragih-Alexander prediction and pick.
Jeka Saragih (13-3) will be making his second career walk to the UFC octagon after dropping his debut to Anshul Jubli this last February. He was originally slated to fight Jesse Butler (12-5) ahead of this card, but an injury to Butler forced the short-notice opponent for Saragih. He'll hope for his first win as a big underdog in this one. Saragih stands 5'8″ with a 69-inch reach.
Lucas Alexander (8-3) has split his UFC bouts at 1-1 thus far. He lost his debut in 2022 via submission to Joanderson Brito, but followed it up with a win over veteran fighter Steven Peterson. Alexander was originally scheduled to fight David Onama a couple weeks ago, but an Onama injury put him on the sidelines. Now, he steps in ready to fight a new opponent. Alexander stands 5'11” with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 82 Odds: Jeka Saragih-Lucas Alexander Odds
Jeka Saragih: +390
Lucas Alexander: -520
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
How to Watch Jeka Saragih vs. Lucas Alexander
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET/ 11:00 a.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Jeka Saragih Will Win
Jeka Saragih made his debut as a highly-touted prospect from Indonesia with an 11-2 amateur record, but he folded to the moment as Anshul Jubli took all the momentum during his own debut. Saragih is a very skilled Muay Thai kickboxer and has tremendous power for his size. He's willing to stand and bang in the center of the cage and he's notched eight of his wins by KO/TKO. He struggled mightily on the ground against a better wrestler like Jubli, so his grappling will need some work if he wants to break through this massive pool of prospects.
Jeka Saragih can win this fight by stepping up into the pocket and closing the distance against the longer Alexander. Saragih will have the sizable power advantage in his strikes and will need to get inside in order to land clean. He's struggled against bigger, longer fighters in the past so his movement will be crucial in this one. He'll have to avoid going to the ground and should look to tie his opponent up on the cage. If Saragih can keep this in close-range and land elbows from the clinch, he could land the more devastating blows. While he's a big underdog, it'll only take him a few punches to shut the lights out and finish this fight.
Why Lucas Alexander Will Win
Lucas Alexander comes into this fight off a strong showing against Steven Peterson. He was able to hang in for all three rounds and while Peterson complained of a broken hand after the second round, Alexander still prevailed as the more durable fighter. He's very good at dishing out damage and limiting shots coming back his way. As a long and rangy striker, he likes to use his leg kicks to keep opponents at distance and compromise their mobility. His cardio is also very impressive and can easily tire Saragih if he pushes a consistently high pace.
Alexander won't have the same one-punch knockout ability as his opponent, so he'll have to be defensively minded and pick his entries carefully in this one. He's more athletic than Saragih and should look to tire him out with his movement. If Alexander can find a home in his jab and continually wear on Saragih with his short combinations, he should be able to outlast him over three rounds. Don't expect him to grappling much in this one, so distance control will be the name of the game for Alexander. He's the sizable favorite for a reason and the odds trend towards a decision win in his favor.
Final Jeka Saragih-Lucas Alexander Prediction & Pick
Lucas Alexander had a very fundamental and sound showing against Steven Peterson and he poses a number of matchup issues to his opponent with his length and reach. If hLucas Alexander can pick-and-pop for three rounds while circling away for Saragih, he should cruise to an easy decision win here.
However, with the threat of grappling barely present here, I expect Jeka Saragih to march forward relentlessly and put some pressure on Alexander. If Alexander isn't careful, he could get caught early in this fight. Jeka Saragih will be searching for the knockout here and I expect him to find it, setting the tone for the rest of this fight card. Let's take a shot on the underdog here as he comes out the more aggressive striker.
Final Jeka Saragih-Lucas Alexander Prediction & Pick: Jeka Saragih (+370)
