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We're set to bring you another prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 84 as our coverage of the Prelims will continue with this next bout taking place in the Welterweight (170) Division. Matthew Semelsberger will square off against Preston Parsons as both fighters try to bounce back after a loss in their last fight. Check out our UFC odds series for our Semelsberger-Parsons prediction and pick.
Matthew Semelsberger (11-6) has gone 5-4 in his UFC action since 2020. He's been up and down for most of his tenure and he's coming in having lost three of his last four fights, including back-to-back losses most recently. Still, he's an exciting fighter and all of his bouts are certified scraps, so expect nothing less out of him in this one. He stands 6'1″ with a 75-inch reach.
Preston Parsons (10-4) has gone 1-2 in his three UFC bouts since 2021. He was finished with punches in his debut and bounced back with a solid unanimous decision over a very tough Evan Elder. He came up short in his last fight as the judges ruled him a loss to Trevin Giles in a split decision. He'll be in a big spot to rebound in this one. He stands 5'11” with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 84 Odds: Matthew Semelsberger-Preston Parsons Odds
Matthew Semelsberger: -130
Preston Parsons: +110
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Matthew Semelsberger Will Win
Matthew Semelsberger was on fire after back-to-back wins over Martin Sano and AJ Fletcher, displaying his tough-nosed striking and lethal Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Since, he's cooled off and lost fights to greater competition in Alex Morono, Jeremiah Wells, and Uros Medic. In each one of those fights, Semelsberger seemed a step too slow on the feet and couldn't keep up with more skilled strikers. Parsons isn't necessarily as skilled as he is dangerous, so Semelsberger could benefit from taking a cautious approach and waiting for a takedown to open up as opposed to searching for the knockout punch. Still, Semelsberger will have the more-tested chin and he's an extremely tough fighter to put away on punches alone.
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To win this fight, Matthew Semelsberger will have to get this fight to the ground and use his superior jiu-jitsu to lock in a submission. Parsons has a very tough chin and both guys are willing to stand and trade in a phone booth. Semelsberger has seen more wars and his chin has been tested more, so he won't want to give up clean shots to Parsons in the pocket. Instead, Semelsberger should grapple against the cage and find top position through the mount. He's skilled enough to find sneaky submissions on the ground and it serves as the clearest path to victory for him.
Why Preston Parsons Will Win
Preston Parsons is an extremely tough fighter and he's been thrown into the fire since his first fight with the UFC. He stepped in on short notice and faced one of the cleaner strikers of the division in Daniel Rodriguez. He also took care of Evan Elder, who fights like a slightly older version of Parsons himself. In his last fight, many fans gave Parsons the fight over Giles but the judges didn't see it the same way. He wasn't very convincing with his actions and his striking output wavered through the third round of that fight. Against another tested veteran like Matthew Semelsberger, Parsons will have to keep his poise and output consistent through the entirety of this bout.
While his opponent may be the more accomplished grappler in the UFC, Parsons has nine of his wins by way of submission and has only been submitted once during his fighting career. This may shape up to be a closer fight on the ground than people may realize and Parsons stays extremely active with his ground-and-pound when in top position on the mat. Expect him to roll with the grappling as Semelsberger initiates the exchanges. To be successful, Parsons will have to be perfect in his transitions and hope that his opponent can make a mistake, leaving him an opening to capitalize on.
Final Matthew Semelsberger-Preston Parsons Prediction & Pick
This fight will be frantic on the feet to start and both fighters have the ability to shut the lights out with their fists. I expect the pair to see some heavy exchanges early-on as they both resort to their grappling by the second round. Both guys have very tough chins and it's hard to see either of them getting put out cleanly in this one.
Expect a decent amount of this fight to be spent in the clinch as both guys try to gain a small edge over each other in their grappling confidence. For our prediction, we'll roll with Preston Parsons to get the win as Semelsberger has taken some serious damage over his last two fights. Expect Parsons to take advantage of the ground-and-pound while he finishes this fight emphatically.
Final Matthew Semelsberger-Preston Parsons Prediction & Pick: Preston Parsons (+110)
