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UTEP finished just outside of bowl eligibility last year but looks to make it this year. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a UTEP football win total prediction and pick.
Last year was falling just short of a bowl game as UTEP finished 5-7. UTEP struggled to start the year, with losses to North Texas and Oklahoma to open the year. They got their first win of the year in the Battle of I-10 before falling to New Mexico. They would win three of their next four, but then lose three of their last four to finish off the year 5-7.
Dana Dimel is building a solid program in El Paso though. After finishing 1-11 in each of his first two years, he is 12-13 in his last two seasons, with a bowl game. UTEP sits 55th in returning production this year, and a huge chunk of that is on the offensive line. The Miners have four returning starters on the line, including Steven Hubbard at left tackle. They bring back Gavin Hardison at quarterback, who should show some more consistency this year.
The defense brings back a lot as well. They were one of the best defenses in Conference USA last year, and bring back a great defensive line. If games are won in the trenches, then the Miners are in a great position to win a lot of games. They will need to come up with more turnovers and get some help on offense at their skill positions, but if they get some improvement there, they will be bowling once again.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: UTEP Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 5.5 wins: -118
Under 5.5 wins: -104
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Why UTEP Can Win 5.5 Games
UTEP opens with games that could easily be won. They start with FBS newcomers Jacksonville State. Two of the best players that UTEP returns are on the defensive side of the ball and in the front seven. Jacksonville State has a run-heavy game, with multiple looks that are tough to defend. Still, the UTEP defense can defend it. It may have to be a low-scoring game for UTEP as they get their offense going, but they can start 1-0. They then face Incarnate Word, an FCS squad. Last year they made it to the semi-finals of the FCS playoffs, and while this could be a tighter game, UTEP has more talent and should get the win. 3-0 in possibly the next week against Northwestern.
Northwestern could be one of the worst power five teams in the nation. They won just one game last year, and have not won on American soil since 2021. Northwestern has a smaller defense and is replacing a good amount of production on the offensive line. If UTEP has their offense starting to move, they could start 3-0
The first loss of the year will come the next week to Arizona. The Wildcats will be an improved team and continue to play hard for Jed Fisch. Jayden de Laura is a top-quality passer, who will get the Wildcats the win. UNLV sits next to UTEP, and Barry Odom is taking over there. This is an early season match-up for a team that will still be breaking in players. They will not be able to get to Gavin Hardison and are missing a lot on defense overall. This is a 4-1 start for UTEP before their game with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have a good pass defense, and while Hardison is a solid quarterback, he will struggle here and UTEP losses.
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After a bye, FIU is the next team on the docket and the next win. FIU could be one of the worst teams in the conference, if not the worst. If UTEP has its defense moving in the right direction, it could easily take out a suspect offense that was 116th in offense last year. The over hits the next week against New Mexico State. While Jerry Kill has the program going in the right direction, the difference in the lines of scrimmage will decide this game.
UTEP can get further over against Sam Houston. This is a road game for the Miners, but a winnable one. Sam Houston has a quality defense and may be one of the best in the conference, but they will struggle to score in this game. While the UTEP defense has holes, the Beakats do not have the players to make up for them. This brings the Miners to seven wins, To finish the season, UTEP could easily go on a three-game losing streak, facing the top three teams in the conference. Still, they will already be bowling and over their total before Middle Tennessee, Liberty, and Western Kentucky.
Why UTEP Can Not Win 5.5 Games
The under could be the path in week one. If UTEP starts slow, they could find themselves behind the season's eight-ball early. Jacksonville State will have one of the more exciting offenses in Conference USA. They have a veteran offensive line, and a solid combination of players to run them all out of the backfield. If UTEP does not have their act together on defense, or their offense running properly, this will be a loss early.
Then there are the non-conference games with two Power Five teams and UNLV. Northwestern will be an improved team in 2023. While they replace Peter Skoronski at tackle, they still bring back a solid offensive line. If Pat Fitzgerald can get Northwestern playing a little better on offense, the defense is always good enough to help carry them. Then UNLV under Barry Odom could be interesting. If UNLV can develop a pass rush and play a little better in the secondary, they have the offense to beat UTEP. While this game is in El Paso, UNLV may be a slight favorite going into it, and this could be a coin-flip game.
New Mexico State could also be a slip-up for the Miners. This team will rely heavily on Deigo Pavia, who will feast on the fact that UTEPs best linebackers overpursue at times. Jerry Kill is a winner and consistently improves teams. Meanwhile, the defense is improving and New Mexico State could be bowling again this year. FIU should have some good weeks as well, and should Sam Houston. If those two teams are going to get a surprise win, UTEP is a quality candidate to take that loss.
Final UTEP Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
UTEP is going to start the year 3-0, with wins over Jacksonville State, Incarnate Word, and Northwestern. They will then drop three straight to fall to 3-3. They will then get the wins over FIU, and New Mexico State, before falling to Sam Houston. Fret not Miner fans, UTEP gets upset over WKU or Middle Tennessee to end the year and finish a solid 6-6.
Final UTEP Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 5.5 (-118)
