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UFC Vegas 105: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy continues on the prelims with a fight between Vanessa Demopoulos and Talita Alencar in the strawweight division. Demopoulos is coming off her first loss since May 20, where she was submitted in the first round.
Meanwhile, Alencar took her first professional loss in her last fight as she looks to get back on track this weekend. So check out our UFC odds series for our Demopoulos-Alencar prediction and pick.
Vanessa Demopoulos (11-6) was riding a wave of momentum coming into her last fight, but she took on decorated grappler Jaqueline Amorim, who submitted her in the very first round. Now, Demopoulos takes on another high-level grappler, Talita Alencar, as she looks to get back to her winning ways this weekend at UFC Vegas 105.
Talita Alencar (5-1-1) went against a familiar foe, Stephanie Luciano, in her UFC debut. However, it didn't go as well as it did the first time they met, and she took the unanimous-decision loss. Now, Alencar will be looking for her first UFC victory when she takes on Vanessa Demopoulos this weekend at the UFC Apex.
Here are the UFC Vegas 105 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 105 Odds: Vanessa Demopoulos-Talita Alencar Odds
Vanessa Demopoulos: -108
Talita Alencar: -112
Over 2.5 rounds: -445
Under 2.5 rounds: +310
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Why Vanessa Demopoulos Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Jaqueline Amorim – SUB R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 (1 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Vanessa Demopoulos has a strong case to defeat Talita Alencar at UFC Vegas 105 thanks to her well-rounded skill set and experience. Demopoulos, a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, has consistently showcased her ability to adapt her grappling expertise to MMA with multiple submission victories in her career.
Her aggressive style on the ground, combined with improved striking, makes her a dual threat. She has also demonstrated the ability to handle high-level grapplers as seen in her previous bouts against opponents with strong submission games. Against Alencar, who relies heavily on her grappling dominance, Demopoulos’ experience and versatility could prove decisive.
While Talita Alencar is an elite BJJ practitioner with multiple world championships, her MMA experience is relatively limited compared to Demopoulos. Alencar’s striking remains underdeveloped, and her takedown accuracy is inconsistent, landing only 15% of her attempts in the UFC. This could allow Demopoulos to keep the fight standing or dictate positions on the ground.
Additionally, Demopoulos’ durability and cardio give her an edge in prolonged exchanges. If she can neutralize Alencar’s grappling and force-striking exchanges, Demopoulos is likely to outpoint her over three rounds or capitalize on openings for a late finish. Expect Demopoulos to secure a hard-fought decision victory.
Why Talita Alencar Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Stephanie Luciano – DEC
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 3 (3 SUB)
Talita Alencar has a clear path to victory over Vanessa Demopoulos at UFC Vegas 105 thanks to her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and dominant top game. As a former IBJJF world champion, Alencar’s grappling is her strongest asset, and she excels at advancing positions and landing ground-and-pound to set up submissions.
Her ability to secure back control and finish fights with rear-naked chokes has been a hallmark of her career. Against Demopoulos, who is comfortable working off her back but often gives up dominant positions, Alencar’s positional control and pressure could neutralize Demopoulos’ offensive guard game.
While Demopoulos has shown resilience and striking improvements, Alencar’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place gives her a significant edge. Demopoulos’ 27% takedown defense leaves her vulnerable to Alencar’s grappling-heavy approach, especially if the fight goes into the later rounds.
Although Alencar’s cardio has been questioned in past fights, her efficiency in maintaining top control minimizes energy expenditure. If Alencar can avoid prolonged striking exchanges and impose her grappling early, she is likely to dominate on the ground.
Expect Alencar to secure a decision victory or potentially finish Demopoulos with a submission after wearing her down with relentless pressure.
Final Vanessa Demopoulos-Talita Alencar Prediction & Pick
The fight between Vanessa Demopoulos and Talita Alencar at UFC Vegas 105 will likely come down to experience and versatility. While Alencar is an elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, her limited MMA experience and underdeveloped striking could leave her vulnerable against Demopoulos, who has shown growth in all areas of her game.
Demopoulos’ ability to mix striking with grappling, combined with her durability and cardio, gives her the edge in this matchup. Expect Demopoulos to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges with Alencar, keep the fight competitive on the feet, and secure a hard-fought unanimous decision victory over three rounds.
Final Vanessa Demopoulos-Talita Alencar Prediction & Pick: Vanessa Demopoulos (-108), Over 2.5 Rounds (-445)
