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These two teams are on a giant downward spiral this season. Miami is struggling more than Virginia is this season. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Virginia-Miami prediction and pick.
Virginia is 9-11 this season, with notable wins against Villanova and NC State. They also have a lot of big losses against Tennessee, St. John's, Florida, SMU twice, Memphis, Louisville twice, and Stanford. Elijah Saunders is the best player for the Cavaliers this year. They will need him at home in this game to get back on track against Miami in this matchup.
Miami is 4-16 this season after a 3-0 start. They don't have many notable wins, but their losses have been to Drake, Oklahoma State, VCU, Clemson, Tennessee, Boston College, Florida State, Wake Forest, Duke, and Stanford. Nijel Pack has been the one big standout for the Hurricanes, but he is injured, so Matthew Cleveland has stepped up. They need a big win in this game to get back on track.
Here are the Virginia-Miami College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Virginia-Miami Odds
Virginia: +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -110
Miami: -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -110
Over: 134.5 (-115)
Under: 134.5 (-105)
How to Watch Virginia vs. Miami
Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: ESPNU
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Virginia Will Cover The Spread/Win
Virginia's defense has been a huge strength. They allow 64.5 points per game, 41.8% from the field, and 33% from behind the arc. Their defense is still the 88th-ranked unit in the country, with a rating of 101.5. Down low, three players average at least five rebounds, with Elijah Saunders leading the team with 5.5 per game.
Blake Buchanan also leads the team in blocks with 1.2 per game. Finally, two players average at least one steal, with Andrew Rohde leading the team with 1.2 per game. The defense is still the Cavaliers' strength, and they should be able to shut down Miami on the road.
Miami's defense has been the worst in the ACC this season. They allow 80.6 points per game, 49.7% from the field and 39.3% from behind the arc. Down low, Lynn Kidd and Johnson are tied for the team lead in rebounds with 6.9 per game. Next, Johnson leads the team in blocks with 0.8 per game.
Finally, two Hurricanes average at least one steal per game, with Johnson and A.J. Staton-McCray tied for the team in steals at one per game. This defense has been awful, and they get a decent matchup against Virginia and how much the Cavaliers have struggled in their own right on offense.
Why Miami Will Cover The Spread/Win
Virginia has had an awful year on offense, not because of their usual slow tempo. They score 61.9 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 43.2%, and a three-point percentage of 37%. Two Cavaliers are averaging over double digits this season, with Isaac McKneely leading the team with 12.4 points per game. Andrew Rohde is the key for the Cavaliers in ball movement, averaging 3.6 assists per game.
This offense is struggling. The Cavaliers have normally been slow, deliberate, and efficient on offense, but they have struggled massively this season. They are second to last in adjusted tempo with a 60.5 efficiency rating. Despite this, they still get a good matchup in this game. Miami has struggled on defense all season and has the worst defense in the ACC.
Miami's offense has been playing well, considering its record. The Hurricanes score 75.7 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 46.1%, and have a three-point percentage of 32.1%. Three Hurricanes are averaging over double digits this season, with Matthew Cleveland scoring 15.1 points per game.
Then, with Pack out, Brandon Johnson leads with 1.9 assists per game. The Hurricanes have shown they can score this season, but the Cavaliers have been a decent defensive team this year. They should be able to score on the Cavaliers, especially at home in Miami.
Final Virginia-Miami Prediction & Pick
The Virginia defense is the difference in this matchup. It is the best unit in this game, and defense travels. The Cavaliers should shut down Miami in this game and find enough defense to win and cover. Virginia needs this win, and based on their defense, I think they will get it. The Cavaliers win and cover on the road in this game.
Final Virginia-Miami Prediction & Pick: Virginia +1.5 (-120)
