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The NBA Playoffs continue, and the Golden State Warriors will be looking to finish off the Houston Rockets as they come into this Game 5 matchup on Wednesday with a 3-1 series lead. It's time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series with a Warriors-Rockets prediction and pick.
The Warriors head to Houston for Game 5 with a commanding 3-1 series lead, looking to close out the Rockets and advance in the playoffs. Golden State’s veteran core, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and the resurgent Jimmy Butler, has proven too much for the young Rockets, especially in clutch moments. Butler’s return in Game 4 was pivotal, delivering 27 points and late-game heroics, while rookie Brandin Podziemski’s breakout has added a new dimension to the Warriors’ attack. Houston, led by Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet, must find answers quickly or face elimination on their home floor.
Here are the Warriors-Rockets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Warriors-Rockets Game 5 Odds
Golden State Warriors: +4 (-110)
Moneyline: +154
Houston Rockets: -4 (-110)
Moneyline: -184
Over: 204 (-110)
Under: 204 (-110)
How To Watch Warriors vs. Rockets NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
TV: TNT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Warriors Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Warriors are well-positioned to win or cover the spread against the Rockets in Wednesday’s Game 5, thanks to their combination of playoff experience, defensive execution, and the return of Jimmy Butler. Golden State holds a 3-1 series lead and has gone 4-1 against the spread in Houston this season, demonstrating their ability to perform on the road. The Warriors’ veteran core, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Butler, has consistently delivered in high-pressure moments, and Butler’s Game 4 return (27 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds) was a game-changer, especially with his perfect 12-for-12 from the free-throw line. Brandin Podziemski’s emergence as a reliable scoring threat (career-high 26 points in Game 4) has added a new dimension to the Warriors’ offense, providing crucial support when Curry has an off shooting night.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have struggled to find consistent offense outside of Alperen Sengun, who has been their lone bright spot, averaging 22.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in the series. Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet have been inconsistent, with Green in particular failing to make an impact in three of four games. The Warriors’ playoff experience and ability to close out tight games give them a clear edge, and their strong track record against the spread in Houston suggests they are a smart bet to cover. With a chance to close out the series and earn valuable rest, expect Golden State to come out focused and deliver another strong performance.
Why the Rockets Will Cover the Spread/Win
Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Houston Rockets are poised to win or cover the spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 on Wednesday. The Rockets enter as 4-point favorites at home, and the numbers suggest they can keep this matchup close or even force a Game 6. While Houston has struggled at the free-throw line and in clutch moments, each of their three losses to Golden State has been competitive, with the Rockets within striking distance in the fourth quarter every time. Their ability to build leads, even on the road, signals that with improved execution-especially at home, they can flip the script.
Houston’s regular season home record (25-8) and their offensive output-averaging 114.3 points per game, nearly four more than the Warriors allow-are encouraging signs. The Rockets are 32-17 against the spread when scoring more than 110.5 points, and their defense has forced the Warriors into tough stretches. If Alperen Sengun continues his strong play and the supporting cast finds consistency, particularly from the perimeter, the Rockets have a strong chance to cover. With the home crowd behind them and their season on the line, expect Houston to play with urgency, capitalize on Golden State’s occasional lapses, and either win outright or keep the margin within the spread.
Final Warriors-Rockets Prediction & Pick
Game 5 between the Rockets and Warriors projects to be a tightly contested battle, with Houston entering as a slight 4-point favorite at home. While the Warriors’ playoff experience and recent clutch performances from Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry make them a formidable opponent in this spot.
Houston’s strong home record and the urgency of facing elimination should fuel a spirited effort, especially with Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet leading the charge. However, Golden State has covered the spread in four of five games in Houston this season. Ultimately, expect the Rockets to win a close game and narrowly cover the spread, capitalizing on their home-court advantage and desperation to extend the series.
Final Warriors-Rockets Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets -4 (-110), Over 204 (-110)
