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The 2022 World Cup is now down to the final eight teams. On Friday, December 9, at 10:00 am ET, Croatia, the second-place team from Group F that beat Japan on penalties after 120 minutes of a 1-1 draw, will take on Brazil, the winners of Group G, who blitzed South Korea 4-1 in the Round of 16. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Croatia-Brazil prediction and pick!
Croatia followed up their 2018 World Cup Finals appearances by overachieving again in 2022. Many pundits didn’t pick Croatia to come out of its Group with Belgium, Morocco, and Canada, let alone make it to the final eight. As for Brazil, the team looked amazing in match one with Neymar healthy, shaky in matches two and three with Neymar sidelined with an injury, and excellent once again last match with Neymar back on the pitch. Needless to say, Brazil is Neymar’s team in 2022.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why Croatia could win, and how Brazil could win, and then make our picks for this quarterfinals showdown.
Here are the Croatia vs. Brazil World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: Croatia-Brazil Odds
Croatia: +490
Brazil: -750
Over 2.5 Goals: -128
Under 2.5 Goals: +106
Why Croatia Will Beat Brazil
This match is a clash of styles more than any other match in the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals. While some may wonder what’s more important to Brazil, winning or playing beautiful football, Croatia wants to drag the game into the mud and win by any means necessary.
In 2018, that grit and grind mentality took Croatia all the way to the finals, but that was with an in-his-prime Luka Modric orchestrating the offensive effort. In Croatia’s Round of 16 vs. Japan, manager Zlatko Dalic had no sentimentality about pulling Real Madrid’s Modric, Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic, and Tottenham’s Ivan Perisic in favor of the fresher, younger legs of the much lesser-known Lovro Majer, Nikola Vlasic, and Mislav Orsic.
This trio isn’t the offensive force Modric, Kovacic, and Perisic are, but they controlled the game, getting the 1-1 contest to penalties where Dynamo Zagreb keeper Dominik Livakovic saved three of Japan’s four penalty attempts. And on the flip side, three of the four Croatians to shoot buried their chances from the spot.
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This is how Croatia beats Brazil. They slow the game down, control the pace, and bully the Brazilian attackers. If need be, they can get a goal from one of the team’s aging attackers, but a Croatian win is a low-scoring affair.
And the longer the game stays low-scoring and close, the more the Brazilian frustration and pressure mounts, and the Croatian’s cool determination comes to the fore. If Croatia can get this match to penalties, the weight of the world will be on Neymar and company, and that’s exactly the way the team in the red and white checkered shirts wants it.
Why Brazil Will Beat Croatia
Brazil beats Croatia simply by showing up and playing up to their potential. But, what we’ve learned in the 2022 World Cup is they have to show up with Neymar.
The Paris Saint-Germain star is the key to everything Brazil does offensively. Does Neymar over-dribble at times? Does he take on too many defenders? Does he dive instead of fight through tackles? Yes, to all of the above. But when Neymar is not there, as he wasn’t in Brazil’s unimpressive 1-0 win over Switzerland and loss to Cameroon, the whole machine falls apart.
That said, Neymar is back, and he was back to being the straw that stirs the drink vs. South Korea. When the superstar forward steps on the field vs. Croatia, he’ll be the best player out there. And more importantly, he draws the attention that makes Vinicius Junior, Richarlison, Raphinha, and Casemiro arguably the second through fifth-best players on the field.
A Brazil win will see Neymar walking through the aged backline of Croatia and either scoring himself or dishing off to one of his compatriots for multiple goals.
Final Croatia-Brazil Prediction & Pick
In the last two World Cup Knockout Stages, Croatia has beat Denmark (on penalties), Russia (on penalties), England (2-1 in extra time), and Japan (on penalties). So, if you like Croatia, take the under 2.5 goals as well. However, if you think Brazil’s talent will finally overwhelm Croatia because they have no answer for Neymar (as I do), then take the over because Brazil can hit that on their own as they win this 3-0. This should be exciting!
Final Croatia-Brazil Prediction & Pick: Brazil (-750); Over 2.5 goals (-128)
