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Carrasco and Povich face off in Bakltimore in Game 2! The Yankees are playing well, while the Orioles are struggling in comparison. This is a big series for these two divisional foes. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Yankees-Orioles prediction and pick.
Yankees-Orioles Projected Starters
Carlos Carrasco vs. Cade Povich
Carlos Carrasco (2-1) with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on three hits with two walks and two strikeouts through five innings.
Away Splits: (0-1) 8.64 ERA
Cade Povich (1-2) with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on four hits with one walk and five strikeouts through 6.2 innings.
Home Splits: (0-1) 8.76 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Orioles Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -116
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 9.5 (-118)
Under: 9.5 (-104)
How to Watch Yankees vs. Orioles
Time: 6:35 pm ET/3:35 pm PT
TV: Prime Video/YES Network/MASN
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Yankees were the best team in the AL and one of the best teams in baseball last season, and they had a record of 94-68 and lost in the World Series to the Dodgers. They have a 17-12 record to start the season and are 3-2 in their last five games. Their bats were a top-10 unit in the league last season, and they are elite once again as the best offense in the MLB. Their pitching was elite last season, but they are just outside the top 10 this season. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Cody Bellinger, and Jasson Dominguez have been elite on this offense behind the plate. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon have been the shining pitchers for the Yankees this season.
The Yankees are starting Carrasco on the mound. He has a 2-1 record, a 5.26 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP. He has allowed 15 runs on 26 hits with nine walks and 17 strikeouts through 25.2 innings across six appearances. He also has a K/BB ratio of 1.8 in those starts. Despite Carrasco struggling, the Yankees have only gone 3-3 in his six appearances this season. The Orioles have struggled to get things moving on offense, so Carrasco should be a giant X-factor in this game, despite his struggles on the mound.
The Yankees' biggest key is the offense; they have been great this year after last season. They had a .248 batting average last season but have been red-hot with a .263 average, which is the best in the MLB this season. Judge has been red-hot for the Yankees and leads the way for a loaded offense. Judge leads in batting average at .405, home runs with eight, RBI with 28, OBP at .496, and total hits with 45. Judge dominates in a loaded Yankees batting lineup. This offense gets a great matchup against Povich for Baltimore, and his inconsistent play up to this point in the season.
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles had a 91-71 record last season, but it's been a slow start compared to 2025, where they have an 11-17 record and have gone 2-3 in their last five games. Their offense was a top-10 unit last year but has fallen to one of the worst in the MLB. The pitching has fallen, and they have been playing even worse than their offense. The Orioles have talent behind the plate, but it's been a struggle. Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, Tyler O'Neill (out with injury), Ramon Urias, and Ryan O'Hearn have been red-hot to start the season. The pitching has struggled, but Zach Eflin (out with an injury) and Tomoyuki Sugano have stood out despite their struggles. The Orioles have started the year slowly, but they have talent and can go on a run, especially if they get healthier.
The Orioles are starting Povich on the mound. He has a 1-2 record, a 5.04 ERA, and a 1.72 WHIP. He has allowed 17 runs on 34 hits with nine walks and 23 strikeouts through 25 innings across his five starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 2.6. The Orioles are also 2-3 in his five starts. Povich started the season playing well, but recently has struggled to find consistency. This is a bad matchup for him to try to right the ship against a Yankees offense that has been unstoppable recently.
The Orioles' offense has fallen off recently after being one of the best in the MLB last year. They are 25th in batting average at .225 after finishing with a .250 last season. Cedric Mullins is the best player despite the offense having a lot of balance on the roster. Mullins leads in batting average with .292, home runs with six, RBI with 20, OBP at .432, and total hits with 26. This offense has been stuck in a rut and desperately needs to perform well. This is a decent matchup against Carrasco because they might be able to get back on track against him due to his struggles.
Final Yankees-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The Yankees are the better team and ultimately win the game, but this pitching matchup is too close for the Yankees to blow them out. The Yankees win, but the Orioles cover at home.
Final Yankees-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-172)
