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UFC 312 is reaching its apex as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the Co-Main Event featuring a battle for the Women's Strawweight (115) Championship. Incumbent Champion Zhang Weili of China will take on USA's No. 1 contender Tatiana Suarez in a can't-miss matchup atop this Main Card. Check the UFC odds series for our Zhang-Suarez prediction and pick.
Zhang Weili (25-3) has gone 9-2 in the UFC since 2018 en route to holding the belt on multiple occasions. She most recently defended her title in a dismantling against contender Yan Xiaonan, marking four consecutive victories to get to this point. She's listed as the betting underdog for the first time since winning the title. Weili stands 5-foot-4 with a 63-inch reach.
Tatiana Suarez (10-0) is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC since 2016. She notably made her return to the sport in 2023 following a four-year layoff, to which she's notched wins over Montana De La Rosa and Jessica Andrade. Now, she'll finally look to exact her title aspirations as the favorite to win this fight. Suarez stands 5-foot-5 with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Zhang Weili-Tatiana Suarez Odds
Zhang Weili: +100
Tatiana Suarez: -120
Over 3.5 rounds: -125
Under 3.5 rounds: -105
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Why Zhang Weili Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Yan Xiaonan – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Zhang Weili comes into this fight looking to defend her Strawweight belt for a fourth time in her career. While she faced a formidable opponent in Yan Xiaonan during her last fight, Weili was clearly the much better fighter and didn't look to be in much danger at any point of the fight. Since regaining her title once again, we've seen a rejuvenated and more aggressive version of herself, putting defense at the forefront of her game while remaining dangerous in all areas of the fight.
Zhang Weili will certainly have to improve her wrestling ahead of this fight as her opponent will be looking to win off control time on the ground. Weili owns a 50% takedown defense, but we haven't seen her spend much time on her back throughout her dominant run. Look for Weili to dictate the striking distance as she'll be levels ahead of her opponent in that aspect. On the ground, expect Zhang to display competency in getting to her feet and stuffing the initial attempts from her opponent.
Why Tatiana Suarez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jessica Andrade – SUB (guillotine choke, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Tatiana Suarez has been waiting in the wings for this title shot over the last few years and come Saturday, she'll know exactly what she needs to do as the betting favorite. She's one of the best pure wrestlers on the women's roster and is in a unique position to control this fight from the ground. She can't be deterred by Zhang's striking as most opponents are, so the focus here for Suarez will be closing the distance and seeing if she can control the champion with her grappling.
Tatiana Suarez has also greatly improved her striking in the fights leading up to this, which was the major concern in having to face Zhang Weili. While she may not be as fast with her hands or her movement, Suarez lands significant strikes at 63% accuracy and has never been taken down in her UFC career. Look for her to confidently close the distance with her jab as she slowly moves towards grabbing a leg and securing the takedown.
Final Zhang Weili-Tatiana Suarez Prediction & Pick
This will be an extremely interesting matchup given the Champion is an underdog for the first time in a title defense. Zhang Weili is capable of dominating the fight from any aspect, but she'll certainly be leaning on her striking advantages in this particular matchup. Tatiana Suarez, on the other hand, is the far better wrestler and can see a lot of success if she's able to consistently take her opponent down.
Still, it's interesting to see Saurez as the betting favorite here and you'd have to imagine her elite wrestling will play a big part in this fight. She'll also prove to be much bigger from a physical standpoint, so it'll be interesting to see how the Champion deals with the takedown attempts when they come.
Ultimately, while Zhang Weili should be able to fight her usual style in this one, I believe Tatiana Suarez is too determined in finding the takedown and she'll eventually succeed in doing so during this one. From there, she should be able to control with ground-and-pound offense while maintaining position and control time on the ground. This fight could go either way, but we'll side with the challenger to win this one.
Final Zhang Weili-Tatiana Suarez Prediction & Pick: Tatiana Suarez (-120); OVER 3.5 Rounds (-125)
