Vladimir Guerrero Jr. presents one of the biggest questions of the 2024 MLB trade deadline. With one year of team control remaining after this year, the Toronto Blue Jays can trade high on their star first baseman or sign him to a contract extension. Guerrero was honest over the All-Star Break about the uncertainty of his future.
“I would love to be in Toronto,” Guerrero said to MLB.com. “My family loves Toronto, my kids love Toronto, but at the end of the day, it's a business. We all need to understand that, so whatever happens happens. Definitely, I would like to stay there.”
This admission from Guerrero is only half the battle towards getting a contract extension. The Blue Jays would want not only to keep Guerrero long-term but also to keep their core together. If the team wants to begin a rebuild, this would be the time to do it. Guerrero is an unrestricted free agent after the 2025 season and will demand a massive contract extension when the time comes. Between missing out on two-way star Shohei Ohtani in free agency and falling to last place at the All-Star break, the Blue Jays should trade high on their star infielder.
The case to trade Guerrero
The Blue Jays are set to sell at this deadline regardless of Guerrero's contract status. Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, and Kevin Kiermier are just a few names who will hit free agency after the season. With a 9.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race and 14 games back of first in the AL East, those players will almost certainly be on the move. Those players, however, will not command the return that Guerrero would at the trade deadline.
The Toronto Blue Jays have only two prospects in the top 100 of MLB.com's rankings. Guerrero is the type of player that could command an MLB-ready player and a top prospect as a return. Adding multiple top-100 prospects would be key to kickstarting the Blue Jays rebuild. That could only be achieved by trading Guerrero and possibly shortstop Bo Bichette. With this core faltering this season and big money headed both Guerrero's and Bichette's way it would be wise for them to make this deal at the MLB trade deadline.
The case to keep Guerrero
The argument for keeping Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a very simple thesis: star players don't grow on trees. In a hockey-crazed city with a recent NBA champion as well, the Blue Jays are always trying to keep fans' attention in Toronto. Having a power-hitting superstar who has a family baseball history in Canada is a huge seller for the team. Having a player routinely near the top of the jersey sales is extremely valuable for a team.
The Blue Jays might believe that they can re-sign Guerrero to a $40 million per year contract and draft well to immediately re-stock this core. Keeping him would also keep young fans coming to the ballpark and buying merchandise while they position themselves for another run at the World Series.
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