Consistency has been the name of the game this year for the Toronto Blue Jays. While the team has been out of contention for a few months now, Toronto's modest win rate has been enough to keep the club firmly in the Wild Card race for much of the year.
Through games played on September 25, the Blue Jays are currently the second of three wild card teams in the American, holding a three-game lead over the Seattle Mariners — who are the last team out. This puts Toronto as the fifth seed in the AL, setting the team up with a Wild Card Round matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays — the top Wild Card team in the league.
With a week left in the season, there are still many playoff scenarios left in play for the Toronto Blue Jays. While a postseason spot is far from guaranteed, this is the postseason seeding sequence that the Blue Jays will most want to avoid.
Earn the #5 seed and face Tampa Bay Rays or Baltimore Orioles in ALWC
Whichever team earns the fifth seed in the American League is going to be in for a heck of a challenge in the playoffs. The team in this unenviable position will face a difficult matchup in the Wild Card Round against the AL East runner-up. This will either be the the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays — currently the two best teams in the American League (with 97 and 95 wins, respectively). Both could easily finish with more than 100 wins, yet one will have to play in the Wild Card round while the other will have a bye to the ALDS.
The Blue Jays face a difficult proposition here. The ballclub needs to do well enough to reach the postseason, but doing too well could make for a more difficult playoff route. As the five-seed, Toronto currently has a 1.5-game lead ahead of the Houston Astros. Yet if the Blue Jays drop to the six-seed, they would have a Wild Card matchup against AL Central champs the Minnesota Twins — who are 4.0 games worse than Toronto. Should Toronto defeat Minnesota, it would face the Texas Rangers — a team with a nearly identical record — in the Divisional Round.
The difference here is stark. The Twins/Rangers path as the six-seed offers opponents with 21 fewer wins on the season than the Rays/Orioles route as the five-seed. Plus, with the Rays at the top of the Wild Card standings by 7.5 games and the Blue Jays currently 10.0 games back in the AL East, Toronto will either be in one of the final two Wild Card spots or out of the postseason together.
The Blue Jays have also struggled against divisional opponents this year. Toronto is 5-5 against Tampa Bay and just 3-10 against the Orioles, giving them a 19-27 record on the year against AL East teams. This is a disappointing mark for a club that is nearly 20 games above .500.
It is difficult for the Blue Jays to be picky about their playoff matchups as they look to win their first playoff series since 2016 (and secure a playoff spot in the first place). But avoiding the AL East side of the bracket would be very advantageous for the Toronto Blue Jays if they want to achieve a deep playoff run this season and repeat the magic of that 2016 season.
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