Two schools start their Mountain West conference schedule, as Boise State faces San Diego State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Boise State-San Diego State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Boise State enters the game at 1-2 on the season. They had an opening loss to Washington in a game in which the defense was run over. After taking an early lead, the Broncos allowed Washington to score four touchdowns in the first half, and another four in the second to lose 56-19. The next week was a tight game with UCF. Boise State led by one at the half, and then took a 16-15 lead after a failed two-point conversion with just 1:49 left to play. That was too much time though as UCF kicked a 40-yard field goal as time expired to win. Boise State would finally get their first win of the year last week, taking out North Dakota 42-18.
Meanwhile, San Diego State comes in at 2-2 on the year. They opened the season with a win over Ohio 20-13. In the game, they knocked out the Ohio quarterback and were able to keep Ohio's offense at bay with the backup. After a win over FCS Idaho State, San Diego State faced back-to-back PAC 12 schools. First, it was UCLA, who they lost against by a score of 35-10. Then the next week it was Oregon State, and they lost 26-9.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Boise State-San Diego State Odds
Boise State: -6.5 (-15)
San Diego State: +6.5 (-105)
Over: 45.5 (-105)
Under: 45.5 (-115)
How to Watch Boise State vs. San Diego State
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: CBS Sports App
Time: 10:30 PM ET/ 7:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Boise State Will Cover The Spread
Taylen Green keeps improving this year as quarterback for Boise State. On the year he is 47-89 passing with three touchdowns. According to PFF, he has five big-time throws, and further, his blocking keeps getting better. While Green has been pressured 23 times this year on 97 dropbacks, the amount of pressure keeps going down, and he has been sacked just twice this year. Meanwhile, he has scrambled for positive yardage six times. The major concern for Green has been decision-making and accuracy. He has already thrown four interceptions this year and another eight turnover-worthy passes.
Green has also been solid on the ground this year. He has 118 yards rushing between scrambles and his eight designed rushing attempts. This has led to 118 yards and a score. Boise State also needs Ashton Jeanty to get back to his form from the UCF game. This year he has run 49 times for 196 with four scores. Against UCF he was solid, running for 115 yards on 24 attempts. He also caused two missed tackles and ran for 64 yards after the first contact. Last week, he did not get great blocking and tried to do too much. His average point of first contact was at the line of scrimmage. While he did cause six missed tackles, he also fumbled twice in the game.
Boise State also needs to see their defense step up in this game. It starts with getting pressure on the quarterback. Last week, the Broncos had just 15 pressures on the quarterback but did convert that into four sacks. Andrew Simpson led the way with five quarterback pressures but did not have a sack. He also missed a tackle in the game. Something that was not common for Boise State. The Broncos missed just seven tackles in the whole game. They also covered well in the game with three pass breakups.
Why San Diego State Will Cover The Spread
San Diego State is led at quarterback by Jalen Mayden. This year he is 70-116 passing for 106 yards and three touchdowns. He has had some big throws this year downfield. Last game he was averaging eight yards per attempt as he pushed downfield. There are some issues though. First is the turnovers. He has a fumble and four interceptions this year. He also has another seven turnover-worthy passes. Second are the drops. San Diego State receivers have dropped seven passes this year, including four last time out. Then there is the pressure. Mayden has been pressured 55 times this year on 140 dropbacks. That has led to 12 sacks this year.
Running the ball, Mayden has been solid. Between scrambles and designed runs, he has 247 yards on the ground this year and two scores. The Aztecs were solid on the ground last week, with Mayden leading the way. Jaylon Armstrong also had a good game. He ran 11 times for 48 yards and a score, with some good blocking. His average point of first contact was over two yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
At wide receiver, the Aztecs would like a little more production from their top wide receivers. Baylin Brooks, Phillippe Wesley, and Josh Nicholson combined to bring in just four of ten targets on the day for 66 yards. They also combined for four drops in the game and went just one for three on contested catches.
On defense, the Aztecs need to get better pressure on the quarterback. They had just nine pressures in the game, led by Zyrus Fiaseu. He has three of the nine, but like the rest of the team, they were unable to get a sack. The coverage was good for the Aztecs though. While they did allow a passing touchdown, they also had two pass breakups and an interception.
Final Boise State-San Diego State Prediction & Pick
Neither team has played exceptionally well this year. San Diego State could easily be 1-3, but got a win over Ohio due to their quarterback getting hurt. Still, they played some great teams so far this year. Boise State only has one win and it is against an FCS school. They also have a loss to Washington, which is another great squad. Overall, this game will come down to who can take care of the ball better. San Diego State has shown they can do it more consistently, so take the Aztecs and lay the points in this one.
Final Boise State-San Diego State Prediction & Pick: San Diego State +6.5 (-105)