The 2022 Boise State Broncos returned to the top of the throne within the Mountain West with a 10-4 record and a perfect 8-0 conference record before falling flat on their faces in the championship game against Fresno State. Fast forward to 2023, and expectations will once again be considered high for the Broncos as they will look to pick up right where they left off. It is about that time to check out our college football odds series where our Boise State Over/Under Win Total prediction and pick will be revealed.
Last season saw a return to glory for the Boise State Broncos as they were able to win ten games for the first time since the 2019 season. Since Boise State's move to the Mountain West Conference in 2011, the Broncos have been able to capture four conference championships in their decade since being a member. Although they ultimately lost in the title game a year, can the Broncos use that as motivation to win more than 7.5 games late this fall?
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: -170
Under 7.5 wins: +138
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Why Boise State Can Win 7.5 Games
Although the Broncos will have a difficult schedule to begin play in 2023 with matchups against Washington and UCF to kick off the year, there's no doubt that Boise State will need to be on their A game right out of the gate.
Of course, the biggest difference-maker for the Broncos this fall will be the return of do-it-all quarterback Taylen Green. A year ago, Green was a dual-threat machine en route to amassing over 2,000 passing yards and rushing for 586 yards on the ground as the freshman signal caller showcased poise and overall guts in the Broncos' ten-win campaign. Hoping to avoid a sophomore slump, Green has the tools to be one of the better quarterbacks in all of college football. Without someone breathing down his neck in the depth chart, it's Green's job to lose in 2023. In addition, Boise State should be projected to win more than 7.5 games in large part due to the return of 1,000-yard running back George Holani to take the pressure off of Green and the rest of the offense.
While some individuals that are skeptical about the Broncos may point to the losses of JL Skinner and the rest of the production on defense, they should be able to rely on names like linebacker DJ Schramm (110 tackles last season) and edge rusher Demitri Washington who is as ferocious as they come. Simply put, the Broncos won't need a top-25 ranked defense nationally to win at least eight games, as their offense will have plenty of weapons to put up the points in a few months from now.
Why Boise State Can Not Win 7.5 Games
Like previously mentioned, Boise State's schedule won't do them any favors, as you could make the case that the Broncos could begin the season on a rough patch. Outside of stiff challenges against Washington and UCF, Boise State will also be facing off with one of the more gritty FCS teams in the entire nation in North Dakota State. While the schedule gets a little more favorable in the later months of the season, it will be that much more important for the Broncos to take care of business in the first handful of contests in 2o23.
Other than the fact that the schedule will be difficult, the main question surrounding this football program will be the amount of depth within the trenches on both sides of the ball. Making sure the offensive and defensive lines are shored up is a main priority for most schools around the nation, but especially Boise State if they want to consistently be able to run the ball and give the proper amount of time to protect Green in the pocket. Not to mention, an undersized defensive line could provide some problems in stopping opposing offenses. Getting pressure on quarterbacks and boasting a stout line in the trenches to stop running games will prove to be critical. Alas, these positional groups are a mystery at the moment and could derail the momentum gained from last year's ten-win squad.
Final Boise State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Surprisingly enough, I believe that this over.under win total set at 7.5 is far too low. Even with a challenging schedule on the horizon, these Boise State Broncos have far too many weapons on both sides of the ball as they should be able to compete for another conference title barring a disaster.
Final Boise State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 Wins (-170)
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