The Atlanta Braves are looking for the four-game series sweep against the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Braves-Mets prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
The Braves have absolutely crushed the Mets in the first three games of this series. Atlanta is outscoring New York 34-3 in the three games played. This includes two shutouts from Braves pitching. On the season, the Braves are winning the season series against the Mets 8-1. The Braves have hit 21 home runs in nine games against New York, and they are batting .321 as a team. Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy have four home runs each. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have three home runs. In those nine games played, the Braves have 103 hits against New York. On the mound, Atlanta has a 10.2 K/9, and they have allowed 35 earned runs. 29 of those 35 runs were allowed by starting pitchers and Michael Tonkin.
The Mets are batting .221 in nine games against Atlanta. Jeff McNeil leads the way with 10 hits, including a home run. Francisco Alvarez has three home runs to lead the team. As a team, the Mets have hit 12 home runs against the Braves. Pitching wise, the Mets have obviously given up quite a few runs. In total, New York has allowed 72 runs in the nine games played. They have just a 7.6 K/9, and of the 21 pitchers (and one position player) to take the mound against the Braves, just two have given up zero runs.
Yonny Chirinos will start the Finale for the Braves. Kodai Senga will try to stop the bleeding for the Mets.
Here are the Braves-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Mets Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+120)
New York Mets: +1.5 (-144)
Over: 9.5 (-118)
Under: 9.5 (-104)
How To Watch Braves vs. Mets
Stream: ESPN app
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
As mentioned, the Braves have been crushing the Mets. That is really all the reason you need to bet the Braves to cover the spread. Atlanta is the best hitting team in the MLB. They lead the MLB in batting average, home runs, and runs scored. They drive the ball with some real exit velocity, and everyone in their lineup is a threat to go deep. The Braves have scored six or more runs in seven of the nine games, so they are scoring at will against New York. With how the Braves offense is swinging it right now, they should be able to cover this spread pretty easily.
Yonny Chirinos has already faced the Mets this season. However, he was with the Tampa Bay Rays at the time. In that game, Chirinos threw 4 2/3 after the opener, and allowed just three runs on three hits. He was beaten by the long ball twice, but other than that, it was a solid outing. If he can keep the Mets in the yard in this one, the Braves should be able to comfortably cover this spread.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Senga has been the Mets best pitchers this season. This was true even when Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were still on the team. Senga has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. He has allowed more than three earned runs in just four of his 21 starts this season, so he has been able to lock it down on the mound. The Braves are obviously a great offensive team, but if there is one guy that can shut them down for the Mets, it is Senga.
Senga has allowed hitters to bat just .218 off him this season. This number greatly improves when he is pitching at home. Senga has allowed hitters to bat just .184 off him at Citi Field, and his strikeout numbers get better, as well. If he can continue to be lights out at home, the Mets will cover this spread.
Final Braves-Mets Prediction & Pick
Admittedly, I am a big fan of Kodai Senga. I think he is a solid pitcher, and if anyone gives the Mets a chance to win straight up, it is him. However, with how both teams are playing right now, it is very hard to bet against the Braves in this one. With that said, I am going to ride the hot hand. I will take the Braves to win this game and cover the spread.
Final Braves-Mets Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5 (+120), Over 9.5 (-118)