The Atlanta Braves were on a roll entering this series, but the Milwaukee Brewers gave them a rude awakening in the opener on Tuesday night. The Brewers walked into Truist Park and handed the Brewers a 10-0 loss thanks to two home runs and two doubles from Willy Adames. It was a rare poor outing from Bryce Elder, as he allowed seven earned runs in just 3+ innings. The Braves hope they can right the ship on Wednesday night as they fall farther back in the National League East standings. The Brewers are on the opposite end, holding a six-game lead in the National League Central. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Braves prediction and pick.
Brewers-Braves Projected Starters
Freddy Peralta vs. Chris Sale
Freddy Peralta (6-6) with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
Last Start: vs. Braves, 6 IP, 7 SO, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 2 HR
2024 Road Splits: (3-3) with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
Chris Sale (13-3) with a 2.71 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP.
Last Start: @ Brewers, 5 2/3 IP, 6 SO, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 ER
2024 Home Splits: (8-0) with a 2.72 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Braves Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-155)
Moneyline: +135
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+125)
Moneyline: -160
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Brewers vs. Braves
Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Brewers have the most difficult matchup against Sale. However, their offensive numbers against lefties make it seem they're due for some positive regression. The Brewers averaged 3.9 runs/nine against left-handed pitchers over their last ten games, which usually indicates a poor batting average. The Brewers are batting .264 with a .352 on-base percentage, so it's hard to believe their run production is so low.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Good luck trying to beat Chris Sale at home. He is among the best home pitchers in the league, owning a flawless 8-0 record at Truist Park. Sale got into trouble in recent seasons with an inability to keep the ball in the park. However, he has an elite groundball rate this season at home and only allowed four home runs.
The Braves are average on the road this season with a record of .500, but they are nine games over .500 at home. The success is due to the play of Sale at Truist Park, but the Brewers are also significantly worse on the road.
The Brewers could be due for some positive regression, it's just a difficult spot for it to happen against the Braves. We know Sale's success this season, but the Atlanta bullpen has also been lights out. They have a 2.77 ERA and are a bunch of ground-ball-producing arms. Ground balls are a difficult way for a bad-luck team to turn things around.
Final Brewers-Braves Prediction & Pick
We see the Brewers' above-average offensive statistics and think it's soon time for them to break out. They did it on Tuesday night with double-digit runs in a 10-0 win. The Brewers can explode on offense, but they're also inconsistent. The Braves are in better form and much more desperate for a win in this game as they continue to chase the Philadelphia Phillies. Take the Braves to rebound in this game and get Sale his ninth win at home.
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Final Brewers-Braves Prediction & Pick: Braves ML (-160)
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