Things were looking very bleak for the Denver Broncos after the first six weeks of the NFL season. Really, even before that.
The Broncos started the season 0-3, with two of those losses coming via blown fourth quarter leads to the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. The other loss was the 70-20 bloodbath at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Luckily, they were able to get off the schneid and secure a 31-28 win over the Chicago Bears, but they quickly dropped to 1-5 after suffering consecutive losses to the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs.
But things can change quickly in the NFL.
Denver has won three consecutive games after taking down the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. All of a sudden, the Broncos 4-5 on the season. The Bills aren't even Denver's signature win during this stretch either. That came against the Kansas City Chiefs before the bye week.
Now, the Broncos are right back in the playoff mix. They're only one game back of a potential AFC Wild Card spot, which is currently occupied by the Houston Texans. Denver may not be able to snag a playoff spot, but they're not going away any time soon either. There are a couple of reasons for that.
Saving Russell Wilson
No one would mistake Russell Wilson's numbers the last three weeks as him ‘cooking.' Wilson hasn't exceeded 200 passing yards in any of Denver's last five games.
According to playerprofiler.com, Wilson has surpassed 200 air yards in only one of those five games, and according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Wilson's average depth of target in the two games Denver played before this Monday Night game against the Bills were 6.6 (21st in the NFL) and 7.1 (23rd in the NFL) yards downfield. Sean Payton is actively reining Russell Wilson back.
So, Wilson isn't cooking, but he is at least heating up frozen food in the air fryer, and it is working. Denver has won the last three games with this approach thanks in large part to Wilson not turning the ball over.
In the Broncos' first six games this season, Wilson committed six turnovers (four interceptions, two lost fumbles). In Denver's last three games, he committed only one turnover (a lost fumble against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8).
Wilson has thrown for six touchdowns in that span as well, composing a third of his total this season. Wilson is playing winning, complementary football as opposed to trying to cook and chuck it all over the field. At least these last three weeks, it worked.
Defense Stepping Up
Opposing offenses must have lit up seeing Denver next on their schedule, because that's exactly what they were doing to the scoreboard. The Broncos relinquished at least 28 points in four of their first five games to begin the season, and one of those was a 70-burger heaped upon them by the Miami Dolphins.
Their defense still isn't perfect; they rank second-to-last in the NFL in rush EPA per play allowed, with only the Carolina Panthers behind them. But they have been a lot better over the last few weeks.
Since their loss to the New York Jets, the Broncos have held the Chiefs, Green Packers, Chiefs again, and Bills to 19, 17, 9, and 22 points, respectively. Since Week 6, Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed defensively. From Weeks 1-5, the Broncos ranked last in the NFL in that metric.
Good defense and taking care of the ball is a winning formula in today's NFL. The Denver Broncos are riding that formula to success the last few weeks. If they can keep it going, they could very well find a way to sneak into the playoffs.
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