The Broncos came on strong this season to get into the playoffs, while the Bills are arguably playing like one of the best teams in the NFL and are seen as the only other team that can beat the Chiefs in the AFC. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Broncos-Bills prediction and pick.
Broncos-Bills Last Game – Matchup History
The Broncos won the last game between these two teams 24-22 on the road in Buffalo. The Bills won the previous three matchups before that. The last game in Buffalo was a big upset, and this would also be a big upset if the Broncos somehow pulled the win off in this game.
Overall Series: Bills lead 23-17-1
Here are the Broncos-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Wild Card Odds: Broncos-Bills Odds
Denver Broncos: +8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +370
Buffalo Bills: -8.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -480
Over: 47.5 (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
How to Watch Broncos vs. Bills
Time: 1:00 pm ET/10:00 am PT
TV: CBS/ Paramount+
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Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Broncos have been great on defense this season, which is the biggest reason they are in the playoffs. They allow 317.1 yards and 18.3 points per game. They are seventh in yards allowed and third in points allowed.
The defense starts and ends with Pat Surtain III in the secondary. Riley Moss has also stepped up next to him. He is the best player on this defense and a difference-maker. Zach Allen has also been a great piece off the edge up front, and Jonathon Cooper has been solid in the middle. The Broncos have the defense to compete with the Bills, but it's difficult on the road against this offense and the MVP favorite, Josh Allen.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Denver Broncos enter the playoffs with an unimpressive offense. They average 324.6 yards and 25 points per game. The offense has pieces, and it starts with Bo Nix under center. He has 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, with a 66.3% completion percentage. The receivers have been inconsistent outside of Courtland Sutton. He has 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns on 81 receptions.
The running game has struggled. They split carries with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin in the backfield. Williams has 513 yards and four touchdowns on 139 carries, while McLaughlin has 496 yards and one touchdown on 113 carries. They have a decent matchup against a Bills defense that has talent but has fallen off this year compared to where they have been.
The biggest reason the Bills have been as good as they have been this season is their offense. They average 359.1 yards and 30.9 points per game. They are 10th in total offense and second in scoring. The offense is tied to how Josh Allen played this year, as he is the front-runner to win MVP. He has 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions with a 63.6% completion percentage. The receiving corps has been balanced and improved as the season continues. Khalil Shakir has been solid in the receiving corps and leads the team with 821 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 76 receptions.
The running game has been great, thanks to Josh Allen and James Cook. Allen has 531 yards and 12 touchdowns on 102 carries, and Cook has 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns on 207 carries. The matchup between the Bills offense and the Broncos defense will decide this game, and it's a big X-factor.
The Bills' defense has been inconsistent this season. They allow 341.5 yards per game and 21.6 points per game. They have struggled against the pass and played better against the ground game. They allow 226.1 yards through the air and 115.5 yards on the ground.
The defense has talent, too, with Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and AJ Epenesa up front. Then, Matt Milano is great in the middle, and Rasul Douglas, Damar Hamlin, and Taylor Rapp are the big standouts in the secondary. This defense has a great matchup in this game against a Broncos offense that has been solid at best. They are playing better entering the playoffs, but it's still a great matchup for the Bills' defense to start the playoffs against, especially at home.
Final Broncos-Bills Prediction & Pick
The Broncos are a great story and were great to watch down the stretch, but the Bills are the better team. The Bills should steamroll the Broncos to open the playoffs. It is a bad matchup for a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game. Thanks to Josh Allen and James Cook, the Bills should start a scoring avalanche on the Broncos. This Bills defense should also do just enough to slow down a Broncos offense that has not been impressive this year.
Final Broncos-Bills Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-115)