The NBA season is officially underway and the third-week slate carries on with a Central Division matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers. Our NBA odds series continues with a Bucks-Pacers prediction and pick.
After winning back to back games against each New York team, the Bucks returned home on Wednesday to play the Detroit Pistons. In this game, the Bucks had an impressive comeback win led by Damian Lillard. Although he had a rough first half, his electrifying performance paved the way for Milwaukee to outscore Detroit 30-23 in the fourth quarter. Winning by just two points to one of the worst teams in the league is not a great look for this Bucks team with high expectations. But, they still got the win. Now they look to improve on the road in a divisional matchup against the Indiana Pacers.
Although the beginning of the Indiana Pacers' season seemed to be marred by their 51 point loss to the Celtics, they have since redeemed themselves. After dropping 152 points on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, the Pacers came back for more on Wednesday night and torched the Utah Jazz. Led by big man Myles Turner, the Pacers beat Utah by 16 points. Turner was the key to their success as he dropped 22 points on 80.0% shooting from two point territory, and added six rebounds and three blocks for good measure. Now on a two game win streak, he will lead the Pacers against the Bucks at home.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Pacers Odds
Milwaukee Bucks: -3 (-114)
Indiana Pacers: +3 (-106)
Over: 243 (-110)
Under: 243 (-110)
How to Watch Bucks vs. Pacers
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT
TV: NBA TV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
With arguably the most prolific rim-attacking duo on the planet, it is only fitting that the Milwaukee Bucks have easily gotten their opponents in foul trouble. The Bucks are tied for fourth in the league with the most personal fouls drawn per game with 21.3. This aids in their ability to get to the line a whopping 29.3 times per game, which ranks first in the NBA. On the other hand, Indiana is averaging the ninth most personal fouls per game at an average of 21.0. If the Bucks continue to play to this strong suit and take advantage of this weakness for the Pacers and get key defenders like Myles Turner, Isaiah Jackson, and more in foul trouble, Milwaukee will have no problem covering.
Moreover, on the offensive side of the ball, the Bucks have been phenomenal shooting the three. Milwaukee has three players (Lillard, Crowder, and Beasley) making 2.2 or more three-pointers per game. Additionally, they have five players (on a minimum of more than one game played) shooting the three at a 40.0% rate or better. This efficient shooting has led to the Bucks in the top ten in the league in both three-pointers made per game and a three-point field goal percentage. This does not match up well against a Pacers team, allowing 15.4 made threes per game on a 39.0% field goal percentage.
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
While the rest of the league has struggled to find an answer for the length and paint presence of Victor Wembanyama, the Pacers showed they have the answer on Monday night. Using big men Myles Turner, Isaiah Jackson, and Jalen Smith, the Pacers were able to limit him to one of the worst games of his career. Led by Jackson's two blocks, Indiana limited Wembanyama to shooting just 1-7 (14.3%) from inside the paint, a 0:2 assist-to-turnover ratio, and finishing with a +/- of -9. Going up against Antetokounmpo brings similar challenges in terms of length. Unfortunately for the Pacers, he is leagues above Wembanyama in terms of talent. However, if the Pacers get this same level of physicality and intensity in the paint, they should have no problem slowing down Giannis and the Bucks.
Coming into this season, everyone believed that the Milwaukee Bucks would blow out almost every game they played. With Lillard and Antetokounmpo at the helm, their opposition did not stand a chance. However, that could not be further from what has happened so far. The Bucks have not won a single game by double digits yet and have lost by 17 or more points twice. This has led to a total team +/- of -18, the 14th-worst margin in the league. Even if the Pacers lose this game, this season's trend for the Bucks seems to indicate that it will be a tight one.
Final Bucks-Pacers Prediction & Pick
With the first couple weeks of play underway, divisional games finally start to ramp up. With these teams having played less than two divisional games up to this point, establishing separation is crucial if a team wants to run away with the division. Coming into this game, the Bucks have made it clear that they have difficulty pulling away late from teams, and it shows with their 1-5 record against the spread. However, the Bucks have had no issue covering against the Pacers over the past four seasons. In this time, Milwaukee is 10-5 against the spread and 3-1 in their last four road games at Indiana. I expect Lillard and Antetokounmpo to continue to develop their two-man game with big nights in store for both of them and for the surrounding sharpshooters to give the Pacers problems they don't have answers for. Give me the Bucks in this one.
Final Bucks-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -3 (-114)
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