It was just four wins in Jim McElwain’s fourth year with Central Michigan football. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Central Michigan football win total prediction and pick.

Central Michigan had its worst season under Jim McElwain last year, winning just four games after winning their division two out of the three prior years. There were a lot of close losses though. They lost by just six in week two against South Alabama. They lost to Ball State by just a point and lost to Western Michigan by two. McElwain has bounced back from bad years in his career when he has had the chance. After a four-win season at Colorado State, he won eight the next year. After a 3-3 record in 2020 at Central Michigan, they won nine the next year.

Also in their favor is the fact Central Michigan is eighth in returning production on defense. While they lost their top defensive lineman, they bring back Michael Heldman and a quality group of linebackers. Secondly, turnover luck has to change for Central Michigan. They ranked 130th in turnover margin last year, just ahead of Northwestern. They did not produce many turnovers and lost 18 fumbles, the most in the nation. If the ball bounces a different way just a few times, Central Michigan is a six-win team.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Central Michigan Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 5.5 wins: +100

Under 5.5 wins: -122

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Why Central Michigan Can Win 5.5 Games 

Central Michigan’s non-conference schedule does not provide a lot of opportunities for wins. First, they have to travel to Michigan State. Michigan State is a 14.5-point favorite right now and rightfully so. Central Michigan has lost its last four attempts against Michigan State and will again. They follow that game up with New Hampshire, which should be an easy win. This will be a lot of running the ball against a New Hampshire team that gave up a ton on the ground last year. Then the Chippewas travel to Notre Dame and South Alabama. South Alabama could win the Sun Belt this year and is one of the top Group of Five teams. They finish the non-conference 1-3, and look to pick up five conference wins.

Eastern Michigan provides the first one. Eastern Michigan winning is predicated on Samson Evans. If Evans does not get going, they will not win. He will not against a quality Central Michigan defensive line, and their first conference win is in the books. Buffalo will be a tough match-up though. Cole Snyder is a solid quarterback and a good combination of running backs to keep the defense off balance. Even with a loss there, the Chippewas will rebound the next week over Akron. Ball State is next, and they lost a lot on both sides of the ball. These could be two bottom teams in the MAC West going at it, but Central Michigan is the better team.

They are also better than Northern Illinois. This will be a close game, and one thing turnovers do is kill close games. Central Michigan will be better in that department this year, and get a third conference win of the year. The one to put them over the top is Western Michigan. This is a major rivalry game for the two teams. It was a close game last year, and this year, the defense will bow up and give the Chippewas a win. The win streak ends there though. Against the two best teams in the MAC back to back, Toledo and Ohio have too much firepower for Central Michigan to contend with. With a four-game win streak in the middle of the season, Central Michigan gets six wins to get to a bowl.

Why Central Michigan Can Not Win 5.5 Games

First, Central Michigan has to beat New Hampshire. That should be an easy win for them, but still, a loss there will end any hope of a bowl game. With three losses in non-conference play and two difficult games against the best teams in the MAC to end the season, Central Michigan has to win five of six games in between to make it to six. They will be heavy favorites against Akron, but the defense did not show a lot against the pass last year. This makes Buffalo a near-impossible game with Cole Snyder at quarterback. It also makes Western Michigan quite difficult. Bert Emanuel Jr. is a rising star in the MAC and showed he had some arm strength in the spring. If he continues to improve in that regard, this game will be very difficult for Central Michigan to win.

Beyond that are two electric run attacks. The interior of the defensive line was solid last year but lost their biggest playmaker. If offensive lines can double up on their best players, it will create running lanes. Central Michigan ranked 70th against the rush last year. If they take a small step back, it will result in two more losses for Central Michigan. Marquez Cooper is going to be an issue in the Ball State game. Ball State led the conference in rushing last year and now has a back that breaks huge plays. He is quick and gets to the outside with ease, which will be an issue for Central Michigan.

Northern Illinois brings out Antario Brown. He was the backup last year, but he averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season. If he can do that with an increased workload, it will be hard for Central Michigan to stop. Finally, they have to face Samson Evans. Evans was expected to declare for the draft last year, but instead, decided to return. He went for over 1000 yards last year and is extremely powerful. Eastern Michigan also has a great set of change-of-pace backs with Jaylon Jackson and Deion Brown.

Final Central Michigan Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Central Michigan has a tough road ahead if they plan to get back to a bowl game. Fan Duel projects them to be sixth in the MAC this year according to their odds to win the conference. They face four of the five teams in front of them this year, including the top four favorites to win the conference. Fan Duel has Northern Illinois and Central Michigan in their own tier in the middle of the pack, which is fair. Central Michigan could go on a winning streak and finish 6-6. They could also easily drop a few games they should win and finish with two wins on the year. Sadly for Chippewas fans, the latter is more likely. Three losses in non-conference play plus losses to Buffalo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Ohio, and Toledo give them a record of 4-8 on the year.

Final Central Michigan Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 5.5 (-122)