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The Kansas City Chiefs are heading back to the playoffs for the tenth straight season. Patrick Mahomes and the offense are having a down year but they have won every one-possession game they've played and are 11-1. While the 2024-25 Chiefs are not the best version of this team, they still will be scary in the postseason. But there are nightmare scenarios for every team. If the Chiefs play the Broncos or the Bills in January, it could be the end of their incredible run.
The worst-case scenario for the Chiefs is losing the top seed in the AFC. In the seven-team playoff format, only one team gets a bye to the Divisional Round which is key for this team. They are injured and getting older and one fewer game will help their three-peat quest. After their loss to the Bills, they are holding onto the top seed by a thread. They must ensure they clinch that top seed in December.
Losing the number one seed would not only take away their bye but force the Chiefs to go on the road if they face the Bills. Kansas City won that game in the Divisional Round last year, but they need home games to sustain playoff success. They just lost in Orchard Park so they won't want to go back there for a cold January game.
They also could be facing a divisional opponent in the Wild Card round. The Broncos have surprised everyone this year with their 8-5 record and could be 9-4 if not for a brutal loss in Arrowhead. Wil Lutz had his last-second kick blocked and instead of beating the Chiefs, they walked away with a loss. The Chiefs must avoid this rematch with their division rivals.
The Broncos would be a tough matchup for the Chiefs
A good way to avoid this matchup for the Chiefs is to beat the Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Week 18. It is possible they already have the top-seed clinched by then but that game will be the last-ditch chance. With the tiebreaker against the Bills in Buffalo's favor, one loss could cost the Chiefs home field.
The Broncos are firing right now and their tough defense can will them to a higher seed than number seven. But they won't have the tiebreaker against the Ravens and still have to play the Chargers. The seventh seed is the most likely spot for Denver to land which is what Kansas City should avoid.
The Broncos win is the closest the Chiefs have come to losing at home this season, which is saying something. Even when they won on the last snap, it was not as improbable as the blocked field goal against Denver. Playing an opponent two weeks in a row would always be tough but going against a well-coached team that already almost won will be very hard.
Last year, the Chiefs went on a historic Super Bowl run, pulling off the first repeat championship since 2004 while only playing one home game. They did not get the bye and went on the road against two-seed Buffalo and one-seed Baltimore to win the Lamar Hunt trophy. They should not have to do that again and clinching the one-seed is the way to do it.
Other disaster potential spots for Kansas City
The only AFC teams Patrick Mahomes has lost to in the playoffs are the Bengals and Patriots. Neither Joe Burrow nor Tom Brady will be in the postseason which is great news for the Chiefs. They have beaten a lot of these other teams, creating scar tissue for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson year after year. It is the new blood that could come in and stun the Chiefs.
Before the Colts could beat Brady's Patriots in 2006, Jake Plummer's Broncos took down the mighty beast in 2005. It was not the Yankees who beat the Astros this season, but the upstart Detroit Tigers. It is often the under-the-radar Davids who finally beat Goliath. The Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos all fit that mold this year.
