The Kansas City Chiefs quietly became the first team in NFL history to host four consecutive championship games last season. Ultimately, they fell short in overtime, losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. Nevertheless, when Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback, there is always going to be some level of expectation.
However, there is a new wrinkle that is yet to be seen in Kansas City. What is this offense going to look like without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs traded the All-Pro wide receiver to the Miami Dolphins for their first, second, and fourth round picks in this past draft. They also landed a fourth and sixth round pick in 2023.
We are yet to see Mahomes without Hill. The dynamic trio of Mahomes, Hill and tight end Travis Kelce have been nearly unstoppable for years now. Toward the end of last season, we saw defenses play more cover-2 shells to take away Hill down the field. That opened things up even more for Kelce to eat over the middle. But it would make logical sense for defensive coordinators to now strategize around Kelce. You might see a lot of bracket coverage with linebackers and safeties over the top. Kelce is a future Hall of Fame tight end. But you can scheme up to stop him if you wanted to. You just weren't able to previously because of Hill.
That's why this year's Chiefs X-factor is not Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs 2022 X-Factor and it's not Patrick Mahomes
This offseason, the Chiefs drafted Skyy Moore out of Western Michigan. They also signed Marquez-Valdes Scantling in free agency. But neither of those guys are expected to take on a lead role with the Chiefs this year. The same cannot be said for former Pittsburgh Steelers receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster.
He was drafted by the Steelers in 2017 with a second-round pick out of USC. In his second season in the NFL, he blew up. Smith-Schuster had 111 catches for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. That also coincided with Ben Roethlisberger's good year as a quarterback in the NFL.
It wasn't long after that Roethlisberger's arm turned into a noodle. He simply could not throw the ball downfield, which significantly limited JuJu's upside. In 2019, he battled injuries and the ineffectiveness of Big Ben, reeling in just 42 catches in 12 games. Things got worse in 2020. Smith-Schuster actually caught a ton of balls, 97 of them in fact. But his 97 catches led to only 831 yards. That's a pathetic 8.6 yards per catch rate.
JuJu is coming off the worst year of his career, mostly in part because of injury once again. He hurt his shoulder a little over a month into the season and was done for the rest of the year. Now, he goes from noodle-arm Roethlisberger to Mahomes.
Next year, it will be JuJu Smith-Schuster who is a Round 2 pick after he resigns with KC.
A healthy JuJu escapes Big Ben and waltzes into 150 Patrick Mahomes targets.
— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) August 29, 2022
Reports out of Chiefs training camp have Mahomes and JuJu on the same page. He appears to be the go-to guy for the Chiefs passing game outside of Kelce. But as we mentioned, Kelce is likely to see more double teams than ever before.
The Chiefs defense, which was already inconsistent at best last year, lost their top cornerback and safety in free agency. Charvarius Ward left for San Francisco. Meanwhile, Tyrann Mathieu, arguably the leader of the team, left for New Orleans. It's fair to expect Kansas City to struggle defensively. That will put even more pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
To me, that means the team's X-factor is JuJu Smith-Schuster. If he can regain his prior form, KC should be just fine. If not, it could be the worst year in the Mahomes era.
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