As one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud could see his name be called first by a team desperately needing a franchise QB. With a tremendous skillset that translates exceptionally well to the NFL, what can be expected from the former Buckeye?
Stroud has been a heralded collegiate prospect for some time and having played against marquee NCAA talent certainly helped his case. While he never brought home a National Championship, Stroud is one of the more decorated Ohio State QBs in recent memory, and he should experience a lot more of that success upon entering the NFL.
CJ Stroud's College Production
Stroud was a heavily-recruited prospect out of Rancho Cucamonga, CA in the Class of 2020, but he somehow was not the best QB in his recruiting class – not even the second-highest ranked.
Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei and Tennessee's Harrison Bailey were the two long five-star QBs in this recruiting class, with Stroud ranked as the QB3 and the highest four-star prospect in the class. Upon entering Ohio State, Stroud saw limited time in his freshman season, sitting behind Justin Fields.
When he was given the reins, Stroud was very impressive – in his first season at the helm, Stroud threw for over 4,400 yards, 44 TDs, and only 6 interceptions while completing almost 72 percent of his passes. That efficiency alone helped solidify himself on draft radars for a draft class that was still two years out.
Stroud’s final collegiate year was a little less impressive but still really good, as he threw for 3,688 yards, 41 TDs, and 6 INTs again – an area of growth in his game between his second and third seasons was his willingness to use his legs, growth that included 15 more carries and more than 100 more yards gained on the ground.
Throwing to targets like Garrett Wilson, Jaxson Smith-Njiba, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and others certainly helped his case, but Stroud took full command of the Ryan Day offense and thrived, showcasing his abilities to hit targets on all three levels of the defense.
CJ Stroud's Strengths & Weaknesses
A surprising trait of one of the best QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft class – a pure pocket passer. Granted, Stroud has the mobility to become more of a dual-threat option that the league is turning toward for their signal callers, but Stroud’s expertise relies on his strong right arm.
His ability to consistently and accurately hit his targets across all three levels makes him the best pure passer in this year’s class, hands down. With Alabama’s Bryce Young fighting Stroud for the QB1 role of this class, Stroud’s passing abilities should make him stand out amongst his fellow QB competition.
His arm talent as a whole is the best part of Stroud’s game – accuracy, strength, trust, touch, placement, you name it – he has it.
Potentially working against him is the threat of his slow acclimation to the style of an NFL offense. Even though he suited up for an NFL feeder school like Ohio State, being a part of a QB-friendly offensive scheme takes certain elements off the shoulders of the QB, which he will need to figure out at the next level.
While Stroud’s athleticism is not in question, his ability (and willingness) to tuck the ball and make a play is, especially since he rarely did that in college. Having stood in a clean pocket for most of his time with the Buckeyes, Stroud was able to survey the field, go through his reads and make a play at his leisure.
But if Stroud were to join a team that has a poor offensive line, then his willingness to stand back in the pocket for too long could become an issue, albeit a correctable one. Stroud’s ability to handle top-tier pass rush units was not really something he had to worry about in college, but he absolutely will be forced to make plays on the run in the NFL, especially if he is drafted by a team that is lacking serious talent on the offensive side of the ball.
Overall there are no glaring holes in what Stroud brings to the table, hence why he is in the running to be the first overall selection. But no prospect is perfect, and while Stroud’s arm talent is what put him in the conversation, his lack of running abilities could knock him down a bit, both in the eyes of NFL talent evaluators and his timeline to become a starting NFL QB.
NFL Landing Spots & Projections
There are plenty of QB-needy teams in the top half of the 2023 NFL Draft that would move mountains at the chance to draft Stroud – and yet, not all of them are great fits for what he brings to the table.
First, the teams that desperately need an upgrade at QB: Houston Texans (2nd overall), Indianapolis Colts (4th), Las Vegas Raiders (7th), and the Carolina Panthers (9th).
Teams that could use an upgrade at QB but are not desperate: Seattle Seahawks (5th), Detroit Lions (6th), Atlanta Falcons (8th), Washington Commanders (16th), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19th).
Of these listed teams, the top four (Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, and Carolina) all make the most sense, based on where their first-round selections currently are and how their rosters are currently built.
It is no secret that the AFC South is lacking in young QB talent – outside of Trevor Lawrence, this division either has journeymen, unproven youngsters, or older veterans holding down starting spots. With the Texans holding the 2nd and 12th picks at the Colts at 4th overall, Stroud may join this below-average division.
For both the Raiders and Panthers, their franchises are in a bit of no man’s land – having semi-competitive rosters built that, if all things go their way, could get them into postseason contention, but are a QB+ away from turning that into a reality.
The Raiders especially are an interesting case, having moved on from longtime QB Derek Carr this offseason. With head coach Josh McDaniels getting his first shot at handpicking his franchise QB, they have been linked to pretty much every QB this offseason (including Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo).
Carolina relied on a resurgent Sam Darnold to fall just short of playoff eligibility, and that was even with their mid-season trade of RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers. With Frank Reich assembling an all-star crew on his coaching staff, what rookie QB wouldn’t be excited to join an upstart roster that could make some noise in 2023?
With all things considered, pencil in Stroud to the Texans at 2nd overall, only because that will be the 2nd-best QB left on the board when they make their selection. Whichever QB-needy franchise mortgages their future to the Chicago Bears for the rights to the first overall selection likely will choose between Stroud and Young, with the other player being a great consolation prize.
Projecting the type of NFL career that Stroud will have is tough, just because his strengths (arm talent) don’t necessarily align with where QBs of the NFL now are trending (dual-threat, rushing abilities). But teams don’t like to use pricey draft capital on prospects they think might pan out – they want a sure thing.
Stroud has the skill set to turn any offensively-challenges team to blossom, depending on the talent of their offensive line. If given the keys as the full-time starter in Year 1, Stroud could very well exceed Kenny Pickett’s 2,404 passing yards from 2022 – the sweet spot for Stroud would be around 2,600 yards, 18 TDs, and 9 INTs.
No team picking this high in the 2023 NFL Draft should be able to plug Stroud in and have that move fix all of their problems – but he certainly looks the part of a bonafide franchise QB, something that teams should be salivating over until late April.
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