Coco Gauff plays Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Gauff-Badosa prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Gauff-Badosa.

The quarterfinals are here at the 2025 Australian Open. We could have a familiar reunion in the latter stages of the women's tournament Down Under. Last year, Coco Gauff faced Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals. We could get that same matchup in Melbourne in 2025 if Gauff beats Paula Badosa and Sabalenka wins her quarterfinal against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Sabalenka is a heavy favorite in her match. Gauff isn't quite as massive a favorite, but she is still the markets' clear-cut choice over Badosa, who is the No. 11 seed at this tournament and is a top-15 player in the world. It's a match in which Gauff is expected to win, but not necessarily in an easy way.

This match between Coco Gauff and Paula Badosa is not that different from what we just saw in the fourth round between Gauff and Belinda Bencic. Gauff is the younger player in the matchup, but her mental toughness and problem-solving skills are highly advanced, better than most players on the women's tour. Gauff might lose one set, as she did to Bencic, but Gauff has a way of focusing more on her defense, getting balls back, and making it hard for the opponent to beat her. Great defensive players in tennis make the fundamental statement to their opponent: “You're going to have to hit six, seven, eight high-quality shots on each point to beat me. You might hit the eighth shot for a winner, but not until I get seven balls back. I'm going to make you earn it.” That's what Gauff does.

In one set, an opponent might stay hot and overpower Gauff, but doing so over three full sets invites the possibility that an athlete will wear down, lose a measure of focus, and fall off the pace. Being accurate in a short burst is doable; being accurate over 2.5 hours is a lot harder to pull off. Gauff makes sure that if she stumbles or wobbles occasionally, she will regroup and force her opponent to beat her. Generally, that doesn't happen. It's up to Paula Badosa to find enough consistency to get the job done over two full sets.

Here are the Gauff-Badosa Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Australian Open Odds: Gauff-Badosa Odds

Game Spread:

Gauff -4.5 (-124)
Badosa +4.5 (-108)

Moneyline:

Gauff -365

Badosa +285

To Win First Set:

Gauff -270

Badosa +210

Total Games In Match:

Over 20.5 (-116)
Under 20.5 (-116)

Total Games Won:

Gauff over 12.5 (-104)
Gauff under 12.5 (-128)

Badosa over 9.5 (-108)
Badosa under 9.5 (-124)

How to Watch Australian Open

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT

TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus

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Why Coco Gauff Will Win

Gauff is the better, tougher, more proven player. She might lose one set, but would you really bet on her to lose two sets? Badosa is a very fine player, but she hasn't achieved what Gauff has. Gauff has the better track record at major tournaments, and that can't be ignored.

Why Paula Badosa Will Win 

This is a very winnable match for Badosa. Gauff lost the first set to Belinda Bencic before rallying in the second and third sets. Badosa, if she can win the first set of this match, could close down an opponent who has been solid but not spectacular at this tournament.

Final Gauff-Badosa Prediction & Pick

Our lean is to Gauff, but the spread is well-calibrated and we think you should pass on this match.

Final Gauff-Badosa Prediction & Pick: Gauff -4.5