The Baylor Bears are set to face the TCU Horned Frogs this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Baylor TCU prediction, odds, and pick.

The Baylor Bears throttled Gonzaga to win the 2021 national championship. College basketball odds analysts knew Baylor was an elite team last season. Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler brought star power to the Bears, who had their meal-ticket scorers plus a dynamite supporting cast which rebounded, defended, and ran the floor at a very high level. Baylor and Gonzaga were clearly the top two teams in the sport last season, and the Bears were just as clearly the superior team of the two, blitzing an unbeaten team in the final game of the season.

One would have expected Baylor to still be very good this season, but to also regress to a degree. Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler should not be easy to replace … or so it seemed.

Here we are in January, and Baylor hasn't yet lost a game this season. The Bears once again look like the team to beat in college basketball. They just beat top-10 Iowa State on the road. They look like the best team in a very deep and rugged Big 12 Conference. They look like a near-lock for a No. 1 seed in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Scott Drew is forming a long-term juggernaut, far beyond the excellence of one individual season. Baylor is becoming a true and entrenched colossus in college basketball.

TCU is at the other end of the Big 12, fighting to escape the bottom tier and trying to take the next step as a program. Jamie Dixon has guided the Horned Frogs to an NCAA Tournament berth in 2018, but that trip to the Big Dance was not sustained. TCU has fallen on hard times in subsequent seasons. The Horned Frogs are looking for a spark, something to serve as a catapult which can get this program back on track. There is no better possible catalyst than a win over the unbeaten and defending national champions.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Basketball odds: Baylor-TCU Odds

Baylor: -9.5 (-110)

TCU: +9.5 (-110)

Over: 139.5 (-110)

Under: 139.5 (-110)

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Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

The Bears are simply the best team in the country, and TCU is not an NCAA Tournament-level team. The gap in talent and overall defensive acumen between these two teams is immense, and you don't really need to think about much more than that when making a Baylor TCU prediction.

Why TCU Could Cover the Spread

The Horned Frogs have been competitive in the Big 12. It doesn't mean they have been especially successful, but they have competed well. The Frogs have been victimized by late-game collapses and untimely spells of bad play, but they have frequently been in position to win a lot of games with five or six minutes left in regulation. They just don't close the sale very often. TCU could certainly be in position to make a run at this game with five minutes left. Combine that possibility with the fact that it's very hard to remain unbeaten for a long time in college basketball. Baylor is the better team, but the Bears are bound to lose at some point. Just one bad day is all it takes for the Bears to stumble and for TCU to cover.

Final Baylor-TCU Prediction & Pick

Baylor is an elite team. The Bears deserve to be trusted. They have earned the benefit of the doubt. Don't overthink the Baylor TCU odds. Go with the champions.

Final Baylor-TCU Pick: Baylor -9.5