The Boise State Broncos are set to face the Fresno State Bulldogs this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Boise State Fresno State prediction, odds, and pick.

The Boise State Broncos entered Mountain West Conference play knowing they had to be close to perfect to make the NCAA Tournament. Boise State’s nonconference slate was a disaster. The Broncos lost to Saint Bonaventure, which would have been a resume-boosting win, but they also suffered losses to Cal State Bakersfield, UC Irvine, and Saint Louis. They didn’t grab a high-end win, leading college basketball odds experts to downgrade them by the time the Mountain West schedule began.

However, in Mountain West play, the Broncos have in fact been perfect. They are 7-0 in the league, and their last three wins have been the best of the bunch. Boise State won on the road at Utah State and San Diego State. It then came home and beat Wyoming. The steady collection of good wins at the top of the Mountain West has made Boise State likely but not certain NCAA Tournament team. When contemplating a Boise State Fresno State pick, consider the Broncos’ elite form right now. They are playing great defense with a long and deep lineup which disrupts offensive sets and alters shots. If you are looking for an over-under play in college basketball odds, consider an under with Boise State. The Broncos’ win at San Diego State came in a 42-37 rockfight. It remains the lowest total number of points scored in any college basketball game this season (79). Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois played an 83-point game (44-39 Loyola) earlier this week.

Fresno State lost to Boise State earlier this season, scoring just 55 points against the Broncos’ locked-in defense. The Bulldogs have beaten Utah State at home. They are talented and have a chance to make some noise in the Mountain West. However, they have no margin for error, having lost to Cal and Utah, two below-average teams. Fresno State also recently lost to Nevada. The Bulldogs, 4-2 in the Mountain West, need to go on a Boise State-style run of wins if they want to have any chance to dance in March. Incorporate that detail into a Boise State-Fresno State pick.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Boise State-Fresno State odds:

College Basketball odds: Boise State-Fresno State Odds

Boise State: -1.5 (-114)

Fresno State: +1.5 (-106)

Over: 119 (-114)

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Under: 119 (-106)

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Why Boise State Could Cover the Spread

The Broncos were able to win on the road at Utah State and San Diego State, two of the toughest places to win in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is tough at home as well, but if Boise State could win in Logan and San Diego, it can win in Fresno. The Broncos are in a defensive groove under head coach Leon Rice. It’s easy and natural to think of a groove as an offense-first reality, but Boise State’s rhythm and success begin at the defensive end of the floor. Fresno State scored just 55 points against BSU in the first meeting between these two teams. Even if Fresno State slightly improves on that total, the Bulldogs will still struggle to score 65 points, which is what they might need to win.

Why Fresno State Could Cover the Spread

Boise State’s 7-0 record in the Mountain West is bound to be dented at some point. Fresno State, playing at home late on a Friday night and desperate to make a push at the NCAA Tournament, will spill the fuel tank and do everything it can to win. This is a situation in which one team might be better, but the other team will play with more energy.

Final Boise State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick

A Fresno State win is a distinct possibility, but Boise State completely trusts itself in close games and keeps winning them. That’s hard to bet against until someone proves the Broncos are mortal in the Mountain West.

Final Boise State-Fresno State Pick: Boise State -1.5