The Florida Gators take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Our college basketball odds series has our Florida Mississippi State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Florida Mississippi State.
The SEC basketball season has involved a number of abrupt plot twists. Kentucky hasn't performed well. Arkansas has just two conference wins through the first three weeks of January, a total shocker. Mississippi State was 10-0 to start the season, but now the Bulldogs are 1-5 in the SEC. It seemed early on that Chris Jans, the first-year head coach who came to Starkville from New Mexico State, was a real difference-maker for Mississippi State. Consider the simple point that New Mexico State basketball is an absolute disaster this season with Jans no longer at the helm in Las Cruces. Jans obviously knows how to run a program, and when he had that brilliant month of November with Mississippi State, it was natural to feel optimistic about the Bulldogs' future. However, a team which did so well in nonconference play has been punched in the mouth in SEC competition. We will see if MSU can get off the deck against an inconsistent Florida team which is coming off a road loss at Texas A&M.
Here are the Florida-Mississippi State college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
College Basketball Odds: Florida-Mississippi State Odds
Florida Gators: +2.5 (-115)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: -2.5 (-105)
Over: 128.5 (-115)
Under: 128.5 (-105)
How To Watch Florida vs. Mississippi State
TV: SEC Network
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET, 5:30 p.m. PT
*Watch Florida-Mississippi State LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
Why Florida Could Cover The Spread
The Mississippi State Bulldogs just can't score. It's not rocket science. MSU hasn't scored more than 64 points in any of its last five games. This team is relatively easy to guard against. There is no elite takeover-level scorer who distorts the shape of the defense and can significantly change the calculus of a game. Chris Jans isn't failing to coach this team well; he doesn't have dudes. He doesn't have the level of talent which can give Mississippi State a real upper hand against competent SEC opponents. Because MSU is so limited, Florida's offensive limitations aren't going to be exploited to such a severe extent. Florida plays sound defense and should be able to keep Mississippi State's limited offense under wraps. Florida has Colin Castleton in the paint to clean up the glass and protect the rim. He should be the difference-maker for the Gators in this game.
Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread
If the Bulldogs can shut down Florida, they can win and cover. Based on how Florida played in its most recent game against Texas A&M, that seems very doable for Mississippi State. Florida hit just 2 of its first 26 shots from the field at Texas A&M. The Gators were remarkably bad in the first half of that game before they made a second-half rally which still fell short. Florida doesn't have the perimeter shooting which can naturally loosen up a defense and spread the floor. The Gators know that opponents are going to pack the paint and force them to hit jump shots. Until they do, nothing will change … and it's clear that Florida players know this is true. They are shooting the ball with fear, not confidence, because they are consciously aware of how important it is to change the shape of an opposing defense.
The other point to make here is that while MSU is 1-5 in the SEC, the Bulldogs have played Tennessee twice, Alabama once, and Auburn once. A lot of teams would be 0-4 in those four games. MSU hasn't yet played the softer part of the SEC. The Bulldogs should be able to win this one at home against a Florida team which has not accomplished much away from Gainesville this season.
Final Florida-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
Stay away from this game. Neither Mississippi State nor Florida are reliable, trustworthy teams.
Final Florida-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State -2.5
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