The No. 23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-5) visit the Michigan State Spartans (12-6) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 6:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Rutgers-Michigan State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Rutgers has won seven of their last eight games and sits at 5-2 and in second place in the Big 10. The Scarlett Knights covered 72% of their games while 56% went under the projected point total. Michigan State has lost back-to-back games but remains 4-3 and tied for fourth place in the Big 10. The Spartans covered 56% of their games while 50% went over. Rutgers has won the last two meetings between the teams and has covered four of the last five dating back to 2019.
Here are the Rutgers-Michigan State college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Rutgers-Michigan State Odds
Rutgers: +2.5 (-102)
Michigan State: -2.5 (-120)
Over: 126.5 (-115)
Under: 126.5 (-105)
How To Watch Rutgers vs. Michigan State
TV: FS1
Stream: Fox Sports
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET/ 3:30 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Rutgers Could Cover The Spread
Rutgers sits in a nice position to cover tonight as road underdogs after an overtime win last weekend. The Scarlett Knights have been one of the more underrated teams in the country as they just entered the top 25 despite wins over Purdue, Indiana, and Ohio State. The advanced metrics love the Scarlett Knights as they rank No. 16 in KenPom and No. 17 in NET. Despite a Quad 3 loss, Rutgers has gone 6-4 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups. They are currently projected as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Rutgers is one of the best defensive teams out there. They rank fourth in points allowed (56.9 Opp. PPG) and hold opponents to the fifth-lowest shooting percentage in Division 1 (37%). KenPom has Rutgers as the third-best defensive team in the country as they've allowed more than 70 points just twice this season. They're pests on defense, ranking fifth in steal rate (12.8%). The Scarlett Knights are also a strong rebounding team, ranking 45th in rebound rate.
Offensive, Rutgers plays a slow brand of basketball as they rank 270th in tempo. They feature two strong scorers in guard Cam Spencer (13.9 PPG) and center Clifford Omoruyi (13.2 PPG). Omoruyi ranks second in the Big 10 in rebounding (10.1 RPG) and third in blocks. They have two players in the top five in the conference in steals, as Spencer ranks second with 2.6 SPG and Paul Mulcahy ranks fourth with 1.7 SPG. Mulcahy also leads the team in assists with 4.1 APG. Spencer in particular has been red-hot on the offensive end as he scored 21 and 23 points in their last two games.
Why Michigan State Could Cover The Spread
Michigan State hasn't found sustained success thus far but remains in an excellent position to cover tonight as they are 7-2 at home. The Spartans have lost two straight games but had previously won seven games in a row including victories over Michigan and Wisconsin. They have solid advanced metrics, ranking No. 40 in KenPom and No. 43 in NET. Although they've gone 5-5 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups, they notably have a Quad 3 loss. The Spartans currently project as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan State is a balanced team who doesn't do one thing particularly well. They notably rank 63rd in points allowed (65.4 Opp. PPG) and 40th in opponent field goal percentage (40.5%). The one area they excel in is on the glass as they rank 28th in the country in rebound rate.
Offensively, the Spartans are led by senior guard Tyson Walker. Walker averages 14.8 PPG and notably shoots 41% from beyond the arc. He is coming off a monster game against Purdue where he drained four threes en route to a season-high 30 points. Walker hit multiple threes in seven of his last nine games and could be in for another strong shooting night against a Rutgers defense that ranks 100th in threes allowed (6.6 Opp. 3PM/Game).
Outside of Walker, senior Joey Hauser (13.4 PPG) and junior AJ Hoggard (12.6 PPG) are the only other Spartans to eclipse 10 PPG. Hauser leads the team with 7.8 RPG, while Hoggard ranks second in the Big 10 in assists with 6.3 APG.
Final Rutgers-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
Despite being the better overall team, Rutgers faces an uphill battle tonight as they have to visit one of the hardest arenas to play at, the Breslin Center. That being said, the Scarlett Knights have shown the ability to win on the road as they took down then-first-ranked Purdue at Mackey Arena. That experience should pay dividends tonight as they should be able to cover a narrow spread and could easily win outright.
Final Rutgers-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Rutgers +2.5 (-102)
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