The Saint Mary's Gaels take on the Houston Cougars in Fort Worth, Texas. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Saint Mary's Houston prediction and pick.
The Saint Mary's Gaels began their season with a 26-point win over Vermont and a 30-point win over North Texas, two mid-major teams which have made notable achievements in recent seasons. It seemed that Saint Mary's had a defensive juggernaut which could relentlessly crush other mid-major teams and weak Power Five opponents. Yet, in the past week and a half, the sands have shifted. Saint Mary's has been limited on offense. Its lack of high-end athleticism has been exposed. Ordinary teams — Washington (which just lost to Oregon State and has also lost to California Baptist) and then New Mexico (which could be good, but we have to wait and see) — have beaten Saint Mary's in consecutive games. The New Mexico loss is notable because that was a home game. The Washington game was a neutral-site contest. What also stands about about the New Mexico loss is that Saint Mary's got off to a 13-2 start and completely stifled the Lobos in the first 10 minutes. Then the Gaels unraveled at the offensive end of the floor and lost. Randy Bennett is a great coach of technique and precision. Saint Mary's is fundamentally sound and knows where to be. Players are properly taught. However, not having high-end athletes can and will limit the Gaels' overall capacities. In the seasons when SMC doesn't prove to be especially threatening or dangerous, that is normally the program's central limitation. That seems to be the case this season.
Houston looks like a Final Four contender, having defeated Oregon on the road and having been dominant in most of its first seven games, all wins. Houston did have a wobbly game against Kent State a week ago, but that is the exception. Most of the time this season, Houston's defensive acumen, length, intensity, and depth under head coach Kelvin Sampson have been a wrecking ball for opposing teams. You will note below the very low over-under total for this game. That's because Houston and Saint Mary's both have well-earned reputations for being excellent lockdown defensive teams. Houston defends at a very high level and usually doesn't step off the gas pedal even when leading by a large margin late in games. Sampson gets his players to be consistently active, consistently focused, consistently engaged in each defensive possession. That's why the Cougars made the Final Four in 2021 and then reached the Elite Eight in 2022.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Saint Mary's-Houston College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Saint Mary's-Houston Odds
Saint Mary's Gaels: +10.5 (-120)
Houston Cougars: -10.5 (-102)
Over: 116.5 (-115)
Under: 116.5 (-105)
Why Saint Mary's Could Cover the Spread
This is a tough team which plays quality defense. Houston might be better, but the Cougars can be drawn into low-scoring and close rockfights. There's a very good chance that's what we'll get in this game.
Why Houston Could Cover the Spread
The Cougars might not always play great offense, but their athleticism and constant activity make them a bad matchup for Saint Mary's, despite the obvious similarities between the two teams.
Final Saint Mary's-Houston Prediction & Pick
This game figures to be a defense-centric battle, but the more specific point to make is that if you think Saint Mary's covers, you should take the under. If Saint Mary's covers, the game will be especially ugly, the ultimate rock fight. If Houston covers, the chances are that the game will open up for the Cougars and SMC won't be able to keep up. Basically, you should think about playing two parts if you think one side will cover. Play the total in addition to the spread if you have a strong read on this game. If not, stay away and just enjoy the defense.
Final Saint Mary's-Houston Prediction & Pick: Houston -10.5, Over 116.5
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