The Washington State Cougars take on the Baylor Bears. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Washington State Baylor prediction and pick.
The Baylor Bears are not what they have recently been. Baylor was a No. 1 seed in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments, and probably would have been a No. 1 seed in the 2020 NCAA Tournament if the event hadn't been wiped out by the pandemic. Baylor won the 2021 national championship and was a top contender to repeat last season. Coach Scott Drew has built a genuinely elite program in Waco, one of the most impressive long-term coaching jobs of anyone in the country. This season, however, Baylor has definitely been knocked down a few pegs. The Bears don't rule the roost the way they did in recent seasons.
Baylor did manage to beat UCLA and Gonzaga early in the season, but the Bears got tagged by Virginia in a game where Baylor allowed more than 50 points in the second half, which would have been almost unthinkable a season ago. Baylor then lost by 26 points at Marquette, a decent but hardly great opponent. The Bears were smoked for 96 points in a game which was never close. Marquette started quickly out of the gate and remained dominant for all 40 minutes. Baylor is still a good team, but the dominance and the sense of complete control which marked the past two seasons are gone. This is a more vulnerable team, at least right now. It could become a great team, but whereas greatness seemed like the default setting for the last two Baylor teams, it's not as certain this season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Washington State-Baylor College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Washington State-Baylor Odds
Washington State Cougars: +10.5 (-114)
Baylor Bears: -10.5 (-106)
Over: 139.5 (-114)
Under: 139.5 (-106)
Why Washington State Could Cover the Spread
The Cougars have had their moments this season. All four of their wins have been by at least 21 points. When things work, they work really well for this team under head coach Kyle Smith. Washington State buys into modern basketball analytics and embraces the 3-point shot in college basketball. This is a team which, if it shoots 3-pointers well, is really hard to deal with. Washington State has created headaches for the teams it has defeated. If the Cougars put the pieces together and manage to get their wing shooters in rhythm, Baylor will definitely have trouble with this team over the course of 40 full minutes. Look beyond Washington State's 4-5 overall record.
Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
Don't look past Washington State's 4-5 record. This is a mediocre team which doesn't have the shooters to make Kyle Smith's system work. If Washington State had better shooters, you would see this team making 3-pointers more consistently, against a wider range of opponents. Washington State couldn't hit timely shots in an overtime loss at home against Utah. It couldn't do the same in losses to Oregon, Boise State, and UNLV. This offense simply doesn't perform well enough to exploit Baylor or the other high-end opponents the Cougars are going to face as the season moves along.
Baylor, despite the clunker against Marquette and the loss to Virginia, is still a team with some very good results, chiefly the wins over Gonzaga and UCLA. Even though the Zags and Bruins were not playing great football at the time of those wins, Baylor did look like a very good team in those instances. The level of quality on the Baylor roster easily dwarfs anything Washington State can offer. It's not even close.
Final Washington State-Baylor Prediction & Pick
Baylor is a much better team, going against a Washington State group which is flying to Texas to play this game. Nothing suggests Washington State will keep it close.
Final Washington State-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Baylor -10.5
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