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Akron football won two games last year in Joe Moorhead's first year at the helm. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with an Akron football win total prediction and pick.
Akron heavily struggled in the first year under Joe Moorhead. They started 1-0 beating FCS Saint Francis. That game took overtime and would be a show of what was to come. They would lose the next two games at Michigan State and Tennessee by a combined score of 115-6. Akron would not pick up their second win of the season until they thoroughly thrashed Northern Illinois in the second to last game of the season, winning 44-12. They almost got their third win of the season, but a late touchdown by Buffalo ended hopes of that.
Akron returns a lot on offense this year. They rank 21st in returning production on offense. This is led by quarterback DJ Irons. He is a massive human, coming in at 6'6″ tall and 205 pounds. Irons missed the last two games of the regular season and was hurt in the Eastern Michigan game. He was playing well in that game, and it is highly likely if he does not get hurt, Akron wins that game and the one over Buffalo. That makes this a four-win squad instead of two. He also is returning his top two targets Alex Adams and Daniel George. To add to the offense, they brought in the former Miami and Florida running back Lorenzo Lingard.
The defense lost a lot of its returning production, but that may not be a bad thing. It was a bad defense last year and it should improve this year. With how good the offense could be, they just need to not be blown out to give Akron a chance to win games.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Akron Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 3.5 wins: -105
Under 3.5 wins: -115
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Why Akron Can Win 3.5 Games
The first positive is the non-conference schedule is not nearly as daunting as last year. They do not have to face a powerhouse in Tennessee or even a team at the level of Michigan State. Still, they may not win a ton of games outside of the conference. First, they open up with Temple. While Temple is not a power program, Akron is going to have to score a lot of points to win this game. E.J. Warner can beat up this bad defense, and they are already heavy underdogs in this game. Currently, they are +10 against Temple. Even with that loss, the Zips should get their first win of the year. Morgan State does not have a good defense and the Zips get to 1-1.
The next two games will be losses. They face Kentucky, who has Devin Leary. Akron will struggle against top quarterbacks this year and this will not be an exception. Then they travel to Indiana, who has a major size advantage on both sides of the line and will win.
The theme of losing to good quarterbacks will continue in conference play, with a loss to Buffalo and Cole Snyder, but the next week is Northern Illinois. Arkon will either be a slight dog or a favorite in this game. Northern Illinois will not have an answer for Irons and the Zips get their second win of the year. They make it back to back the next week over Central Michigan. Central Michigan has huge holes on both the defense and offense. Bert Emanuel Jr. is a great dual-threat quarterback, but the Zips have the better offense in a shootout.
After a loss to Bowling Green, Akron will get win number four against Kent State. Kent State was decimated by the transfer portal and may be one of the worst teams in the nation this year. Star players for the other side will give the Zips three more losses to end the season. Miami (OH) has Brett Gabbert and Aveon Smith. One of them is going to beat up this poor defense. Eastern Michigan has Samson Evans who will run all over this defense. Finally, Ohio will win with Kurtis Rourke in the final game of the year.
Why Akron Can Not Win 3.5 Games
Arkon has to win the games they will be favored in. They may not be favored four times this year, but even if they are not, they will need to pull off the upsets in situations where they are slight underdogs. Akron is going to be 1-3 coming out of the non-conference play. That is not a guarantee though. Last year it took overtime for them to beat Saint Francis. Morgan State should be a win, but if Irons is not 100%, it can be a loss.
Central Michigan also has a solid quarterback that could give Akron trouble. Bert Emanuel Jr. looked solid in the spring, and if he can level up his passing, he will be one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC. He averaged over 120 yards on the ground last year running the ball. While he did not throw a lot last year, part of that was because no one could stop him from running. The other issue is he played one game in a massive snowstorm. Central Michigan winning here takes the over our of the questions.
Kent State is another area of concern. Ky Thomas comes in from Kansas, and combined with Xavier Williams, Kent State should still have a solid running game. The Golden Flashes have won four in a row over the Zips and will be in a prime position to do it again.
Akron has to win three games in the conference to get to four wins. The problem is, Akron gives up big plays and last year, big-time playmakers beat them with ease. If that happens in one of the more winnable MAC games, the under will hit.
Final Akron Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
This pick comes down to how much the defense has improved and DJ Irons's health. If Irons is healthy all year, he will give the Zips a chance to win a lot of games. If he gets hurt, the chance is almost none. The Zips' defense is bad. They did not bring in a lot of fix that either. They struggle against the pass and do not defend well against power rushing. Most MAC teams have one of the two options on their offense. Joe Moorhead's second season is a disappointment, and the Zips finish 2-10
Final Akron Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 (-115)
