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Dobbins and Skubal face off in Detroit in the finale! The Red Sox have battled issues with consistency all season, while the Tigers are one of the better teams in the MLB. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Tigers prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Tigers Projected Starters
Hunter Dobbins vs. Tarik Skubal
Hunter Dobbins (2-1) with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed zero runs on five hits with zero walks and six strikeouts through six innings.
Away Splits: (0-0) 0.00 ERA
Tarik Skubal (4-2) with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on two hits with zero walks and 12 strikeouts through seven innings.
Home Splits: (3-0) 1.13 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Tigers Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-128)
Moneyline: +172
Detroit Tigers: -1.5 (+106)
Moneyline: -148
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Tigers
Time: 6:40 pm ET/3:40 pm PT
TV: NESN/FanDuel Sports Network Detroit
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox had the epitome of a mediocre season last year, finishing with an 81-81 record. They are playing solid baseball, with a 22-21 record, and have gone 3-2 in their last five games. Statistically, the Red Sox were great on offense last season and have carried it over into this year, playing very well. Then, the pitching has been average and has not changed much from last season to this season. Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas (injured), Kristian Campbell, Trevor Story, Cedanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu have held the fort for this elite offense. Sean Newcomb and Garrett Crochet held the fort in the pitching staff. Walker Buehler and Richard Fitts are also solid pitchers, but are out with injuries.
The Red Sox are starting Hunter Doobin on the mound. He has a 2-1 record, a 2.78 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. He has allowed eight runs on 23 hits with four walks and 19 strikeouts across 22.2 innings across four starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 4.8 through those starts. The Red Sox are 2-2 in his four starts. It is worth noting that Dobbins has not played any of the batters for the Tigers this season. It will be an intriguing matchup because he is playing well, but so is the Detroit offense.
The Red Sox's offense was great last year and has been great this season. Last year, they were sixth in team batting average at .252; this season, they are 10th in team batting average at .252. Bregman, Devers, and Abreu have been the most consistent players on this offense and have stood out the most on an elite offense. Bregman leads in batting average at .309 and in total hits with 51. Then, Devers leads in RBI with 31 and in OBP at .407. Finally, Abreu is the home run leader, with 11. Against Skubal, Bregman has a .333 average and two RBI in nine ABs, and Devers has a .222 average, with both in nine ABs. Abreu has not faced Skubal yet.
Why The Tigers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Tigers were 86-76 last season and made the playoffs as a wild-card team. This season, they have a 27-15 record and are 3-2 in their previous five games. Their bats struggled last season, while their pitching was excellent. This season, their bats have been significantly better in comparison, and they have been even better on the mound. Riley Greene, Mark Canha, Kerry Carpenter, Javier Baez, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney, and Spencer Torkelson have stood out on a much-improved offense. The pitching has carried them when needed and has stayed remarkably consistent. Their aces, Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, and Casey Mize (injured), have also been great rotation members.
The Tigers are starting Skubal on the mound. The reigning Cy Young winner has a 4-2 record, a 2.08 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP. He has allowed 11 runs on 37 hits with five walks and 60 strikeouts in 47.2 innings across eight starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 12 through those starts. The Tigers are 5-3 in their eight starts. Bregman and Duran have a .333 average, and Devers has a .222 average. Story has a .400 average, and then Rafaela has not gotten a hit off of him. Abreu and Campbell have not faced Skubal yet.
The Tigers finished with a .234 batting average last season but have jumped to fourth this year at .260. Torkelson, Carpenter, McKinstry, and Greene have stood out in a balanced batting lineup. Torkelson leads in home runs with 1o and in RBI with 33. Then, Carpenter leads in batting average at .288, McKinstry leads in OBP at .371, and Greene in total hits with 41. Dobbins has not played any of the batters for the Tigers this season, so this is a giant X-factor in this matchup for either team.
Final Red Sox-Tigers Prediction & Pick
Dobbins has shown potential, but Skubal is the best pitcher, and the Tigers have the better offense. This will be close, but the Tigers win and cover late.
Final Red Sox-Tigers Prediction & Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+106)
