The Arkansas Razorbacks are set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our Arkansas-Alabama prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Arkansas-Alabama odds in this Saturday matchup:
College Football odds: Arkansas-Alabama Odds
Arkansas: +21.5 (-114)
Alabama: -21.5 (-106)
Over: 58.5 (-110)
Under: 58.5 (-110)
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Why Arkansas Could Cover the Spread
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a pleasant surprise this season. They have improved from a 3-7 record in 2020 to a 7-3 record in 2021. The offense is averaging 433.8 yards per game on 29.3 points per game. They are coming off a 16-13 victory at LSU last weekend. Arkansas has won their previous three games by a field goal or more. The Razorbacks rush the ball 63.34% of the time, ranking in the top ten in the nation (6th). The offense averages 6.0 yards per play as well. Arkansas allows 25.1 points and 360.7 yards per game.
The Razorbacks have faced some tough competition so far this season. They played #2 Georgia, #7 Texas A&M, #15 Texas, #17 Ole Miss and now get set to face one of the best teams in Alabama on Saturday. The run game will have to be highly active to keep the Crimson Tide offense on the sidelines. They rushed the ball 40 times last week against LSU and may even have to run it ten more times against Alabama. In their last nine road games, the Razorbacks are 6-2-1 against the spread.
Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread
The Alabama Crimson Tide are currently riding a four-game win streak after demolishing New Mexico State 59-3 at home. They had 587 total yards in the game and had multiple back-ups play in the second half. This did not stop the Tide from holding NMSU to 138 total yards, including just nine rushing yards. They face two ranked opponents in the upcoming weeks and will be prepared for an Arkansas offense that averages 29.3 points per game. Quarterback Bryce Young is having himself a Heisman-caliber year at the helm of the offense. Young has thrown for 3,025 yards, 33 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Alabama ranks 3rd in points per game (44.2) and 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage (58.78%).
Defensively, Alabama allows 18.7 points and 296.3 yards per game to opponents. They rank 8th in opponent yards per play with 4.4. They have been very dominant this season on both sides of the ball, as they always have been. Arkansas leads the nation in giveaways per game (0.6), so Alabama will likely force some turnovers in this matchup. Over their last fifteen home games, the Crimson Tide are 12-3 against the spread. In their last seven games overall, the Crimson Tide are 5-2 against the spread.
Final Arkansas-Alabama Prediction & Pick
Throughout the season, the Razorbacks have shown that they can hang around with top teams in the nation. They have three wins over ranked opponents. However, the Arkansas offense is essentially one-dimensional as they cannot throw the ball downfield. This is not ideal against an Alabama team, especially if the Razorbacks go down early and are forced to air it out. Over its last 14 conference games, Alabama has covered ten of them. In a home game on senior night, I find it difficult not to back the Crimson Tide. To play it safe, I would buy the point for Alabama to get the spread under three touchdowns (-20.5).
Final Arkansas-Alabama Prediction & Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -21.5 (-106)
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