The Baylor Bears take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Check out our college football odds series for our Baylor Texas Tech prediction and pick.
The Baylor Bears were a preseason top-15 team. The presumption heading into 2022 was that Baylor would continue to be a very strong defensive team, for the simple reason that Dave Aranda has a great track record as a defensive coach. Aranda coached the LSU defense to the 2019 national championship. Sure, Joe Burrow was the star and leader of that team, and of course the 2019 LSU offense was a juggernaut, but the Tigers had over a dozen NFL draft picks from that team, and a lot of them were defensive players coached and developed by Aranda, who then came to Baylor and in very short order developed a Big 12 championship team. Aranda conquered Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma last year, and he beat Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy in the Big 12 Championship Game. He then outmaneuvered Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss to win the Sugar Bowl. Why wouldn't Baylor be really good once again?
It just hasn't worked out that way.
Baylor was poor on offense in an early-season loss to a BYU team whose defense gave up 52 points to Arkansas and over 40 points to Liberty. Baylor was poor on defense in a wild 43-40 loss to West Virginia earlier in October. The season has spun sideways for the Bears, who clearly need reinforcements on both sides of the ball and are nowhere close to the standard set by last year's team.
Texas Tech was not expected to contend for the Big 12 title, but the Red Raiders have become a better team in recent weeks. The answer is a surprise: Behren Morton. The freshman quarterback has been pressed into service because of injuries to Tyler Shough and Donovan Smith. Morton had some rough moments in a loss to Oklahoma State, but he was superb last week in a blowout of West Virginia. Texas Tech scored 48 points and looked like a very formidable team. The Red Raiders and first-year head coach Joey McGuire hope to continue to develop Morton's football IQ and his confidence. Tech could ride a wave and get stronger in November.
Here are the Baylor-Texas Tech NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Baylor-Texas Tech Odds
Baylor Bears: +2 (-114)
Texas Tech Red Raiders: -2 (-106)
Over: 61.5 (-108)
Under: 61.5 (-112)
Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread
The Bears' defense played a lot better against Kansas than it had in its previous few games. That version of Baylor looked a lot more like the 2021 team than the group which lost at home to Oklahoma State and on the road at West Virginia. If the Bears keep improving and carry their defensive advancements into this game, they have a good chance of confusing Behren Morton and winning a low-scoring game.
Why Texas Tech Could Cover the Spread
Behren Morton will decide this game, one way or the other. The fact that Baylor's defense has given up more than 35 points in multiple games this year, combined with the fact that Texas Tech is playing at home, should give Morton the comfort zone needed to thrive.
Final Baylor-Texas Tech Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game, given the presence and centrality of a freshman quarterback, but if you insist on a pick, home field is worth several points, therefore pointing to the idea that Texas Tech is more likely to win.
Final Baylor-Texas Tech Prediction & Pick: Texas Tech -2
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