The Georgia Bulldogs are set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Georgia-Alabama prediction, odds, and pick.

The Georgia Bulldogs will make the College Football Playoff even with a loss, but this is still a high-pressure moment for them and a true proving ground. Kirby Smart has lived in Nick Saban's shadow for the past several years, ever since Alabama stunned Georgia with a late rally in the 2017 season's College Football Playoff National Championship Game in Atlanta. Georgia controlled most of the play, as college football odds historians know well, but allowed the Crimson Tide to mount a late rally. Alabama faced a 2nd and 26 in overtime and appeared to be dead in the water, but a future Heisman Trophy winner named DeVonta Smith — remember him? — caught a long pass along the left sideline to give Bama an instant national championship in walk-off fashion.

Everyone who is contemplating a Georgia Alabama pick remembers that national title game and its dramatic ending. Kirby Smart lost to Saban last year in the regular season and had to hear more about how his former boss had continued to surpass him. This year, Georgia has had the clearly better team through 13 weeks. Georgia has been dominant, thanks to a defense which has not yet given up more than 17 points in any game in 2021. Georgia has played the way Smart wants his teams to play: with brute force, pure power, an imposing game with all the subtlety of a fist in the face, and an offense which doesn't have to take any risks whatsoever. This is the “manball” style Smart loves, which carries a high margin for error when the defense is smothering opponents.

The problem with “manball,” as exposed by Saban and his loaded Alabama offenses in previous years, is that if an offense is good enough to score on a powerful and physical defense, the safe, high-percentage style of play no longer applies. A “manball” team built on running the ball and taking zero chances must suddenly take risks and go for broke. That's how Saban has outflanked Smart in the past. This year, Smart's Georgia team has been letter team-perfect in its execution, while Saban's Alabama offense has frequently misfired and performed several notches below its normal standard. When people make a Georgia Alabama prediction, will they trust Georgia's superiority this season, or will they trust Saban's ability to adjust in a big game?

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Football odds: Georgia-Alabama Odds

Georgia: -6.5 (-115)

Alabama: +6.5 (-105)

Over: 48.5 (-110)

Under: 48.5 (-110)

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Why Georgia Could Cover the Spread

The Bulldogs are far better than Alabama. Keep in mind that Alabama rushed for just six yards against LSU. Alabama was this close to losing 10-3 to a not-very-good Auburn team. If you are thinking about a Georgia Alabama pick, you need to realize just how physically unimpressive Alabama is. Compare that to Georgia's obvious physical prowess. The Alabama offensive line was brilliant one year ago, but this year's group is ordinary at best, maybe even below-average overall. Georgia should destroy Bama in the trenches. If it does, it should win this game comfortably.

Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread

Let's keep this one simple: Nick Saban is an underdog with nothing to lose. He knows his team isn't that good. Everyone on the Alabama roster has a lot to prove. That should be scary for any favorite against college football's best coach.

Final Georgia-Alabama Prediction & Pick

The reality of Saban being an underdog is a fascinating plot point. Alabama isn't in this position very often. Maybe Alabama will play its best game of the year … but after seeing what you saw against Auburn, do you really want to count on that? Georgia will manhandle Bama in the trenches and prevail by at least 10 points.

Final Georgia-Alabama Pick: Georgia -6.5