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The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Miami Hurricanes. Check out our college football odds series for our North Carolina Miami prediction and pick.
The North Carolina Tar Heels lost decisively to Notre Dame earlier this season. They did not play well on Aug. 27 in their season opener against Florida A&M. They gave up 61 points to Appalachian State on Labor Day weekend.
They might be the favorite to win the ACC Coastal Division. How wild is that?
North Carolina might not be an especially good team, with a leaky Gene Chizik-coached defense and a roster with several noticeable flaws, but compared to the rest of the Coastal, UNC might be the best team. Pitt just lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team. Virginia has had a very rough first season under new head coach Tony Elliott. Virginia Tech looks horrible. Duke has been solid, but that is in a very comparative context. We don't know how good the Blue Devils are within the Coastal Division itself. North Carolina really might be better than every other Coastal team.
This brings us to the team North Carolina faces in Week 6.
The Miami Hurricanes were, for many, the best choice to win the Coastal in 2022. Mario Cristobal came from Oregon with a sterling reptuation for not only recruiting, but developing top-of-the-line offensive line play. The recruiting piece isn't going to emerge until 2023 and 2024, but the part of the formula which was supposed to exist from the start in Miami was offensive line play, and that has not existed. The offense has been a disaster. Miami scored only nine points in a loss to Texas A&M. The Hurricanes were not able to get starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to play well. They benched him in a recent loss to Middle Tennessee. The Miami passing game has suffered without receiver Xavier Restrepo, who has been injured for multiple weeks. Though missing Restrepo has mattered, losing one receiver shouldn't affect the whole offense to the extent that it has. Line play, running the ball, and other pass catchers should all be able to pick up the slack, but no one has. Miami has a lot of soul-searching to do, and we'll see if it creates a good result this week against the Tar Heels.
Here are the North Carolina-Miami NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: North Carolina-Miami Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels: +3.5 (-110)
Miami Hurricanes: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 66.5 (-105)
Under: 66.5 (-115)
Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread
The Miami offense is a mess, but the Canes' defense also failed spectacularly against Middle Tennessee, giving up four touchdown plays longer than 65 yards. The Hurricanes have been a massive disappointment, and one wonders if something so broken can be fixed so quickly. UNC quarterback Drake Maye has to like his chances against Miami's secondary, but the biggest reason UNC will cover is that its weak defense is going up against a limited Miami offense which is unlikely to exploit the Tar Heels' flaws.
Why Miami Could Cover the Spread
The Hurricanes had the past week off, which came at a great time. This team needed a total reset. It needed to get to the practice field and return to playing fundamentally sound football. Miami has looked at UNC film and has been able to get a really good look at what it needs to emphasize in its game plan. The two weeks of preparation are the best thing which could have happened for Miami in terms of winning this game.
Final North Carolina-Miami Prediction & Pick
Miami has had two weeks to prepare, but the UM offense is not built to exploit a weak UNC defense. That's why North Carolina should cover.
Final North Carolina-Miami Prediction & Pick: North Carolina +3.5
