Welcome back college football fans! Year nine of the James Franklin project will be underway a few months from now as the Penn State Nittany Lions will once again face a difficult gauntlet in a loaded Big Ten Conference. Join us for our college football odds series where our Penn State over/under win total prediction and pick will be revealed.
The 2022 college football season saw the Penn State Nittany Lions reach one of the highest mountaintops in all of the sport as they outlasted the Utah Utes to smell the roses in the Rose Bowl game. Alas, it was the first time the Nittany Lions reached the eleven-win threshold since the 2019 season when Penn State when they were Cotton Bowl champs. With a bunch of new faces surrounding this program in 2023, can the Nittany Lions keep this positive momentum going for another season?
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 9.5 wins: (-138)
Under 9.5 wins: (+112)
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Why Penn State Can Win 9.5 Games
At first glance, Penn State was fortunate enough to have reliable and steady quarterback play with Sean Clifford under center during the past four seasons, but the biggest headline surrounding Happy Valley will be the fact that their will be a new starting field general in the fold. With Clifford's college eligibility finally running out and with him taking his services to the NFL level, the Nittany Lions are left with a freshman quarterback by the name of Drew Allar who will have to undergo some growing pains before he polishes his game to the necessary level.
Luckily, Penn State returns the same offensive coordinator from a year ago in Mike Yurcich, so there could be some familiarity there for Allar to possibly have a breakout season as the go-to man. Without a doubt, Allar possesses the skill-set to be a great college quarterback, so winning at least 9.5 games in year one of him starting isn't the craziest of scenarios.
Above all else, the greatest chance that the Nittany Lions possess to win at least 9.5 games will happen to come in the form of a rising superstar on the defensive side of the ball. After becoming one of the top linebackers in all of the conference as a freshman, Abdul Carter will prove that he will be the anchor on a defense that could rank as one of the top-ten units in all of college football. Since the offense might struggle at times, it may be a good thing that the Nittany Lions have a stout defense that can help them shutdown opposing offenses en route to some big-time wins.
Why Penn State Can Not Win 9.5 Games
On the other side of things, winning 9.5 games for Penn State this fall and replicating the same type of success from last season may prove to be a difficult challenge for many reasons. To begin, Penn State has major question marks in regard to their secondary. Clearly, there are gigantic shoes to fill with the departures of first-round pick Joey Porter Jr. and Rose Bowl MVP Ji'Ayir Brown. Simply put, this secondary room is as thin as a stick, and someone in this positional group will need to step up in a big way if they are going to slow down high-octane passing attacks like the one's Ohio State and others possess.
Another reason why Penn State won't reach the wins on the season will be in large part due to the lack of depth on the defensive line. Although this unit has always been rather stable for the Nittany Lions, there is major roster turnover within the defensive trenches.
Not to mention, there doesn't seem to be a firm and reliable option at the moment when it comes to Penn State's wideouts. Even though there is plenty of talent to go around, which one of those names will be the new go-to man vertically and even with their underneath routes. Alas, if there is no outside weapon, then the Nittany Lions could be in trouble.
Final Penn State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
On paper, it appears that Penn State may be taking a step backward in 2023. Without their returning quarterback and also losing a plethora of talent to the NFL this spring, it is hard to imagine that the Nittany Lions have enough firepower on both sides of the ball to be a major Big Ten player this fall.
Final Penn State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 9.5 Wins (-138)
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