The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Check out our college football odds series for our Penn State Rutgers prediction and pick.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have lost the two most important games on their schedule in 2022, the two games by which they most centrally measure themselves. Penn State lost to Michigan and Ohio State, showing that it was clearly a few notches worse than the Big Ten's two best teams. Penn State, however, is also very clearly the third-best team in the Big Ten, the “best of the rest.” This has been a terrible year for the Big Ten, especially the West Division. Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota — the teams usually in the hunt for the division title — have all been below-average in 2022. Iowa might still win the division, but the Hawkeyes' offense has been dreadfully bad. Iowa could win the Big Ten West but will not get a particularly good bowl bid unless it goes all the way and somehow beats Ohio State or Michigan, two teams it lost to in the regular season.
Penn State is playing for something significant in these last two weeks of the season. Though the Nittany Lions lost their biggest games of the year, the weakness of the Big Ten has enabled them to go 8-2 through 10 contests. They are in a very good position to finish 10-2, which would likely put them in the top 12 of the College Football Playoff standings. That would translate to a New Year's Six bowl berth, which is no small thing. “Win the games you're supposed to” can lead to a big bowl bid if you're a brand-name team as Penn State is.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 4-6 and on the ropes. Rutgers has to pull off the upset here, then win next week, in order to get a bowl bid. Rutgers fell short last week at Michigan State in a 50-50 game it needed in order to grab a bowl slot. Failing versus the Spartans forces the Scarlet Knights to do something extra special … and extra difficult. It will be hard for this team, particularly this offense, to hold up physically in the trenches against Penn State's power and strength. Coach Greg Schiano needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat if this team is going to get a postseason ticket.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Penn State-Rutgers College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Penn State-Rutgers Odds
Penn State Nittany Lions: -19.5 (-110)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: +19.5 (-110)
Over: 44.5 (-114)
Under: 44.5 (-106)
Why Penn State Could Cover the Spread
Penn State is simply a lot better than Rutgers in the trenches. Penn State isn't as good as Michigan, but Michigan was a lot better than Rutgers. Michigan was favored by more than 25 points against Rutgers. Penn State is favored by just under 20. Penn State's offense is hardly special, but the defense figures to dominate.
Why Rutgers Could Cover the Spread
Penn State's offense is creaky and flawed enough for Rutgers to play a very inspired game and at least hold the Nittany Lions under 28 points. If Rutgers can do that, the Scarlet Knights will cover the spread if they can score 10 points.
Final Penn State-Rutgers Prediction & Pick
The spread pick is hard to gauge, but the over-under is the better play. Rutgers is not going to score very much at all. Penn State does not have a brilliant offense. This game feels like a 27-7 game.
Final Penn State-Rutgers Prediction & Pick: Under 44.5
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