The Purdue Boilermakers (2-2) travel north to take on the #21 Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0) in a Big Ten conference matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET on Saturday. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Purdue-Minnesota prediction and pick.
Purdue is 2-2 on the season. They are coming off a tight 28-26 home victory over Florida Atlantic University behind backup quarterback Austin Burton. The Boilermakers are 0-1 in Big Ten play this season – their lone game was a loss against Penn State.
Minnesota is undefeated through four weeks of the season. The Golden Gophers are riding high after a 34-7 beatdown of Big Ten rival Michigan State last week. Thanks to that victory, Minnesota is 1-0 in Big Ten play.
Here are the Purdue-Minnesota college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Purdue-Minnesota Odds
Purdue Boilermakers: +12.5 (-114)
Minnesota Golden Gophers: -12.5 (-106)
Over: 51.5 (-110)
Under: 51.5 (-110)
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread
Purdue had high hopes entering the season but after heart-breaking losses to Syracuse and Penn State, they find themselves at 2-2. To make matters worse, starting Quarterback Aidan O'Connell is dealing with a rib injury. He missed last week's win over FAU and his absence was surely noted. The Boilermakers struggled against an inferior FAU team before eventually pulling away for a 2-point home victory. Assuming O'Connell is out yet again, backup Austin Burton should get the start yet again.
Burton was solid last week in what was his first start as a Boilermaker. In his first college stint at UCLA, Burton started one game but that was all the way back in 2019. He has ridden the pine since transferring to Purdue but will face a huge opportunity to prove his worth on Saturday against a Minnesota defense second in the country in points allowed. Burton was solid in his start last week. The senior completed 21-29 passes but for just 166 yards. He did toss three touchdowns but also had a crucial interception that led to an FAU touchdown. Burton is a solid game manager and Purdue has a number of weapons on the outside but he seemed honed in on one target in particular: his roommate Charlie Jones.
Jones caught 9 passes from Burton on Saturday. Although he went for just 59 yards he had 2 touchdowns in the first half. The senior possession receiver is Purdue's leading receiver in 2022. Jones has already amassed his career receptions in four games this year. For the season, the Iowa transfer has 41 catches for 533 yards and 7 touchdowns. He currently leads the Big Ten conference in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. His ability to get separation and find open holes in the defense will be crucial in making a Purdue-Minnesota prediction.
Why Minnesota Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota has been absolutely dominant through four weeks of the season. The Golden Gophers have won every game this year by at least four touchdowns, albeit largely against inferior opponents. Minnesota had yet to face a true test before their dominating victory over Michigan State last week. It's unfair to criticize a team for beating up on lower opponents – you're supposed to beat bad teams, right? Last week Minnesota proved they're not just a fluke, though.
The Gophers dominated Michigan State from start to finish last week. They lead 17-0 at halftime and did not allow the Spartans to score until 17 seconds left in the game. 5th-year starter Tanner Morgan continued his strong play for Minnesota. Morgan finished the game 23-26 with 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. Morgan has been incredibly efficient this season in a game manager role. He has completed an eye-popping 77% of his passes this year and is currently 5th in FBS in QBR. Despite his heroics this year, he's not the star of this Gophers offense. That would be running back Mohamed Ibrahim.
Ibrahim was one of the top backs in the country in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He was a popular Heisman sleeper last year before tragically tearing his Achilles in the season opener. Miraculously, the senior recovered from the injury in less than a full year and returned for his 5th season this year. There have been no signs of rust thus far. Ibrahim ran for 103 yards and a touchdown against a stout Michigan State defense last week. He has had over 20 carries in each game this season and is the focal point of the Gophers' offense. Second in the Big 10 in every rushing category, the Purdue defense will have a hard time keeping him contained once Saturday rolls around.
Final Purdue-Minnesota Prediction & Pick
The Gophers opened as 9.5 point favorites but this line has climbed all the way to 12.5 thanks to increasing speculation that Purdue's starting Quarterback Aidan O'Connell will miss yet another game thanks to a rib injury. It's looking unlikely he'll be available for Saturday's matchup and if he is indeed out this is an easy Minnesota pick. Jump on the line now because when O'Connell is announced as out this line could climb as high as two touchdowns.
Final Purdue-Minnesota Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Golden Gophers -12.5 (-106)
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