The Purdue Boilermakers are set to face the Ohio State Buckeyes this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Purdue-Ohio State prediction, odds, and pick.

The Purdue Boilermakers love playing with house money. They have knocked off a top-five team twice this year. They defeated Iowa earlier in the season when the Hawkeyes were No. 2. They just defeated Michigan State when the Spartans were ranked No. 3. Coach Jeff Brohm had been underperforming at Purdue heading into this season, but just when everyone was doubting his ability to get the most out of his players, he delivered two upsets plus a road win at Nebraska to gain bowl eligibility. Purdue is very much in contention for the Big Ten West championship. If Wisconsin and Minnesota both lose and Purdue wins out, the division title is in play in West Lafayette. Include that thought process when making a Purdue Ohio State pick.

The Ohio State Buckeyes thumped their opponents in October, leading some to think that Ryan Day had fully figured out the problems which affected OSU in September. That turned out to be a premature assumption. Ohio State pounded mediocre teams (Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland). As soon as the level of competition improved, the Buckeyes ceased to dominate. They won hard-fought and close games against three-loss Penn State and six-loss Nebraska, showing that they are hardly a lock to defend their Big Ten title and return to the College Football Playoff. People who follow college football odds are aware that Ohio State isn't yet back to elite status within the context of the 2021 season.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Purdue-Ohio State odds:

College Football odds: Purdue-Ohio State Odds

Purdue: +20.5 (-105)

Ohio State: -20.5 (-115)

Over: 63.5 (-110)

Under: 53.5 (-110)

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Why Purdue Could Cover the Spread

The Boilermakers don't have much of a running game. Their passing game is their running game, with a lot of short, quick passes involved. Yet, the fact that Purdue has to throw the ball constantly does not get in the way of creating variety and aggressiveness in a passing game. You might have seen the throwback screen Purdue executed to perfection against Michigan State last week. That's the kind of play-calling brilliance Jeff Brohm is capable of. It's why Brohm seemed to be such a good hire for Purdue when he came to West Lafayette several years ago, and it's why Brohm's failures in recent years were so disappointing for the Boilermakers.

Now that Brohm is coaching well again, Purdue is dangerous. Quarterback Aidan O'Connell has been terrific in this recent surge. Purdue has won three of four, including the two takedowns of top-five opponents. In Purdue's most recent three wins, O'Connell has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. He was 40 of 54 for 536 yards against Michigan State. He has the hot hand. Ohio State will have a challenge containing him and the Purdue offense. That's part of the calculus in a Purdue Ohio State prediction.

Why Ohio State Could Cover the Spread

The Buckeyes are the far more talented team, playing at home after two weeks in which they didn't play especially well. They know they have to be a lot better. If they play their best game, this will be a blowout. Purdue is playing better, but remember: In the 2021 college football season, no team except for Georgia has truly sustained a high level of play every week. Purdue could be due for regression, while Ohio State could be due for a breakout. OSU definitely wants to sharpen up before the huge closing stretch against Michigan State and Michigan.

Final Purdue-Ohio State Prediction & Pick

Ohio State will win, but nearly three touchdowns is a lot against a Purdue team which is confident, fearless, and very much in a groove. Wisconsin's defense did throttle Purdue, picking off O'Connell three times. Ohio State's defense isn't playing well enough to make that kind of a dent in the Boilermakers' offense. The final score will be something like Ohio State 38, Purdue 24.

Final Purdue-Ohio State Pick: Purdue +20.5