The defending MAC champion, Toledo, is expected to repeat this year. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Toledo football over/under win total prediction and pick.
What Matt Campbell started before heading to Iowa State, Jason Candle has been improving upon. Candle started his career with Toledo with a win in the Boca Raton Bowl. He has not had a season below .500 since. Candle has won the MAC twice. He has taken Toledo to five bowl games in seven years. In 2019 he went 6-6 and was the only bowl-eligible team not to be invited to a bowl. The next year was 4-2 but no bowl game due to the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Going into this year, Toledo sits 11th in terms of returning production according to Bill Connelly. Toledo's defense took a big step forward in the past two years and continues to improve. They bring back stud quarterback Dequan Finn, along with their running backs and wide receivers. On the line, they bring back three starters, and a fourth guy on the line will be a 2021 starter who missed all of last year due to injury.
On defense, they do need to replace a few key spots in the front seven, but they bring back great corners. The Rockets were one of the best against the pass in terms of quarterback success in all of FBS. By all measures, this should be the year Toledo runs through the conference and makes some noise on the national level.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Toledo Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 8.5 wins: -120
Under 8.5 wins: -102
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Why Toledo Can Win 8.5 Games
The offense and this team will go as far as Dequan Finn takes them. Finn is a plus passed who can get his receivers open. He does turn it over some, but he has improved in that regard. He is also a fantastic runner. Finn is large and athletic. He will get the short yards when needed and can keep plays alive with his legs. He will be trouble for a lot of the defenses he faces this year. They open with a chance to make a statement against Illinois. The Illini lose some big pieces off of their dominant defense, while also losing their star running back. With this being the first game of the year, the upset may happen. Toledo is currently a 10.5-point dog in this one, but they have the pieces to pull the upset.
Following the Illinois game is Texas Southern, which will be a win. Then comes San Jose State. Like Illinois, they lost a lot of pieces to the NFL on defense. Unlike Illinois, they do not have the talent to replace them. The Rockets will be at worst 2-1 coming out of this opening part of the season. They then open conference play with Western Michigan, who beat Toledo last year. The Broncos lost the man who single-handedly did it though. Sean Tyler is gone, and Toledo wins. Then against Northern Illinois, the Huskies have the offense to keep up, but they do not have the defense to keep them close enough. It is another win before Toledo defeats UMASS.
Toledo's back half of the schedule opens with two road games. Ball State will be the tougher of the two, but replacing three corners will be too much against Toledo. The same goes for Miami (OH). The RedHawks will be good this year, and most likely make a bowl game, but this will not be a win. The last major test of the season comes with Buffalo. Buffalo is a consistent issue for most teams, and Cole Snyder is a quality quarterback. If Finn is still healthy though, they will not have enough to win this one. With an undefeated conference slate and four winnable games in the non-conference, there is an argument to be made for an undefeated Toledo this year.
Why Toledo Can Not Win 8.5 Games
It would first start with Toledo losing two in the non-conference slate. They would have to lose to both Illinois and San Jose State. Illinois should be a loss, but San Jose State will be a game in which Toledo is favored. Still, they have a quality program and do bring back some keep pieces on offense. If those pieces work well, they could upset Toledo.
Second, there have to be two conference losses. There are three key places this could happen. First is Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois may have the worst group of quarterbacks in the MAC. Still, each of the three men competing for the job has shown some flashes of quality play. If one of them can take clear control of the job, and work with some quality wideouts, combining that with a defense that returns at 12th ranked 79% of their production, could mean an upset.
Next on the list is Miami (OH). Brett Gabbert is a quality quarterback and showed how good he can be until he got hurt last year. The defense for Miami (OH) brought back four of their top five defensive backs, and Matthew Salopek will be a problem for Finn in this game. Finally, there is Buffalo. Their defense brings back Shaun Dolac at linebacker, plus one of the best safety in the conference. That combined with two great defensive tackles could be enough to slow Finn and the Rockets down.
Final Toledo Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Toledo is the favorite in the conference and for good reason. Not only did they win the conference last year, but they also bring back most of the major pieces that helped them do so. Jason Candle will lose a game he should win. He has done it before. He will not do it three times though. Toledo pulls the upset in week one but does stumble on the perfect season in conference play. They finished 11-1 and they overhit with ease.
Final Toledo Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
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