The UTEP Miners are set to face the Fresno State Bulldogs in the New Mexico Bowl this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our UTEP-Fresno State prediction and pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the UTEP-Fresno State New Mexico Bowl odds:
College Football odds: UTEP-Fresno State Odds
UTEP: +11.5 (-110)
Fresno State: -11.5 (-110)
Over: 51.5 (-110)
Under: 51.5 (-110)
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Why UTEP Could Cover the Spread
The UTEP Miners have had a rough ending to their season, finishing 7-5 and 4th in the C-USA West division. The Miners have lost four of their last five games overall heading into this Bowl game. The offense is led by quarterback Gavin Harrison, who has thrown for 2,966 yards and 17 touchdowns. Wide receiver Jacob Cowing leads the team with 1,330 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. This connection will be important for the Miners on Saturday if they want to stay within striking distance against a solid Fresno State team. UTEP averages 24 points and 385.8 yards per game. They rank 13th in the nation with 8.9 yards per pass. UTEP put up 38 points two times this year in wins against BCU and Rice, so there is a possibility that they can put up more points that their average indicates.
Defensively, the Miners have given up 35 points over their last two games. On the season, UTEP allows 24.5 points and 340 yards per game to opponents. The UTEP defense ranks 4th in the nation in opponent completion percentage (53.06%). They are led by junior outside linebacker Breon Hayward, who has 97 total tackles this year. The Miners will be at an advantage in this matchup as the Bulldogs will be without their head coach and starting quarterback. Fresno State is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight bowl games.
Why Fresno State Could Cover the Spread
Fresno State comes into this Bowl game as double digit favorites. Deservingly so, the Bulldogs have only lost three times this year, two of which were a one possession loss to Oregon and Hawaii. Fresno State has won five of their last six games, beating SJSU 40-9 in their most recent game. The offense totaled 486 yards and the defense forced two turnovers to dominate the Spartans. The Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener has been quite impressive this season, throwing for 3,810 passing yards and 32 touchdowns with a 67.5% completion rate. Wide receiver Jalen Cropper leads the team with 827 receiving yards and eleven touchdown catches. Overall, Fresno State averages 30.9 points and 444.8 yards per game offensively. They rank top ten in the nation in pass play percentage (56.16%) and pass yards per game (316.9). They should be able to move the ball through the air against this mediocre Miner defense that just allowed UAB to throw for 204 yards last game.
Fresno State is the more complete team, having the advantage on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they have the best opponent 4th down conversion percentage in the country (18.75%). They have the 2nd best opponent completion percentage as well (52.79%). The Bulldogs yield 21.2 points and 348.8 yards per game to opponents. Over their last five games against a team with a winning record, Fresno State is 4-1 against the spread.
Final UTEP-Fresno State Prediction & Pick
It will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs execute offensively without their starting quarterback and head coach. UTEP is not a great team, but they have won a fair amount of games this season. They seem like the hungrier team at the moment, and if they can get stops defensively then they should do enough to hang around in this game. I would lay the points with the Miners to cover the spread in this New Mexico Bowl.
Final UTEP-Fresno State New Mexico Bowl Prediction & Pick: UTEP +11.5 (-110)
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