The Virginia Cavaliers are set to face the Pittsburgh Panthers this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Virginia-Pittsburgh prediction, odds, and pick.

Virginia was in huge trouble early in the season, but when Miami missed a short field goal on the last play of regulation, the Cavaliers escaped with a win. Virginia won another white-knuckle game when Louisville missed a late field goal. Coach Bronco Mendenhall's team has been extremely fortunate. You need to keep that in mind when making a Virginia Pittsburgh pick. Yet, those doses of good luck have enabled this game to be a division championship game. Virginia has scratched and clawed to get to this point.

The Pittsburgh Panthers have a man who could be a Heisman Trophy finalist at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York next month. Kenny Pickett has had a marvelous season, thriving despite having less-than-elite talent around him in the Steel City. Pickett defeated Dabo Swinney and Clemson with a mature and poised performance earlier this season. When he gets even a small amount of help from his defense, he takes advantage. Pitt has lost games this year in which the defense allowed 44 and 38 points. That's not Pickett's fault. People contemplating a Virginia Pittsburgh prediction should account for that.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:

College Football odds: Virginia-Pittsburgh Odds

Virginia: +14.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh: -14.5 (-110)

Over: 66.5 (-110)

Under: 66.5 (-112)

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Why Virginia Could Cover the Spread

The Pittsburgh defense got torched earlier this season at home by both Western Michigan (44 points) and Miami (38). Though the Panthers are led by a defense-first coach, former Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, they really haven't figured out their secondary, and they haven't fielded a dominant defense at any point in Narduzzi's tenure. Even though Kenny Pickett is brilliant and figures to roast the weak Virginia secondary, the Cavaliers can certainly score enough points on Pitt to keep the game close. The two-touchdown spread is large, and it is based on a factor we will discuss below:

Why Pittsburgh Could Cover the Spread

The Panthers could cover for one very obvious reason, the central drama of the leadup to kickoff: Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong is questionable with an injury suffered a few weeks ago against BYU. Armstrong missed UVA's last game against Notre Dame, and the Cavaliers' offense predictably was smothered. If Armstrong can't play, Virginia can't score or win. It's that simple. We have to wait and see what Armstrong's status is. If Armstrong can in fact play, we need to see how impaired or limited he is. If he is a shell of his former self, Virginia won't have much of a chance.

Final Virginia-Pittsburgh Prediction & Pick

To be brutally honest and helpfully candid, you should stay away from this game. Don't make a Virginia Pittsburgh pick. You don't have to. The college football odds don't matter in this case. What matters is Brennan Armstrong's health, and it's very hard to say what kind of a player Virginia will have on the field. Armstrong could be great, he could be severely diminished, and he might not even be able to give it a go at Heinz Field. Don't play Twitter doctor. Don't think you know how healthy an athlete will be if you're not close to the situation. The point is clear: Sit this one out. This is a bettor's pass. Look for other games in which it's easier to have a clearer line of analysis.

If you have to make a prediction, the spread is a real landmine. Picking an over-under makes more sense. Given Pitt's leaky defense, the over is the best in a series of not-very-good betting options on this game.

Final Virginia-Pittsburgh Pick: Over 66.5