The Chicago Cubs (26-32) visit the San Diego Padres (27-32) for the finale of their four-game series. First pitch commences Monday at 9:10 p.m. ET. Chicago leads the series 2-1 thanks to yesterday's 7-1 win. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Cubs-Padres prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Cubs-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Padres Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-140)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How To Watch Cubs vs. Padres
TV: MLB Network, Marquee, Bally Sports
Stream: MLB.tv, ESPN+
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET/ 6:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Cubs-Padres LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 4-6 (Third in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 32-26 (55%)
Over Record: 29-28-1 (51%)
Chicago has had an up-and-down season and faltered in May with a subpar 10-18 record. However, they got off to a hot start in June thanks to taking two of the first three games in this series with San Diego. Although they've ensured at least a draw in the four-game set, the Cubs won't be taking their foot off the peddle tonight with just 5.5 games separating them and the first-place Brewers. The Cubs have faired well as underdogs this season – covering at the seventh-highest rate in the league during such circumstances. That said, they'll need their offense to show a bit more consistency if they want to do so again tonight considering they've scored less than three runs in two of their previous three games against the Padres.
Righty Kyle Hendricks (0-1) makes his third start of the season for the Cubs tonight. Chicago's long-time ace hasn't quite looked like his prime self over the last two seasons with two straight years with an ERA north of 4.75. He missed the first two months of the season with an injury but has since returned with mixed results. He struggled in his debut against the Mets – allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks in just 4.1 innings. However, he looked much sharper in his most recent start against the Rays during which he gave up just a single run in 5.0 innings. Walks do remain a concern, however (five through two starts), and the Padres notably lead the league in walk rate.
While the Cubs' offense has been up and down, they've destroyed left-handed pitching this season with a .279 average and .466 slugging percentage. Chief among that production is their middle infield – a good sign for the Cubs given their play of late. Both Nico Hoerner (10 total bases) and Dansby Swanson (11 total bases) have been red-hot over their last six games.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 5-5 (Fourth in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 29-30 (49%)
Over Record: 19-38-2 (33%)
For a team widely considered one of the favorites to win the National League prior to the season, the Padres haven't looked the part thus far. Although they managed a winning record in April, they faltered to 10-16 in May – dropping them out of the division race in the process. The Padres hold the fourth-lowest home cover rate in the league and failed to do so in two of their first three games against the Cubs. Additionally, Blake Snell has been the third-least profitable pitcher to bet on due to his early season struggles. That said, the Padres' offense has flashed the ability to carry at times – including during their 6-0 win in Game 2 of this very series.
Southpaw Blake Snell (1-6) makes his 12th start of the season for the Padres tonight. The former Cy Young Award winner is nowhere near his former, dominant self and is in the midst of the worst season of his career. With a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 11 starts, the Padres have just two wins in the games he starts. Although his strikeout numbers are down, his 9.8 K/9 remains strong and he is coming off the two best starts of his season. Over his last two outings, he's given up just a single run over his last 11 innings. Walks remain a concern, however, and he's issued multiple free passes in each of his last five outings. That was on full display in his prior meeting with the Cubs. While he only allowed two runs in 5.0 innings of work, he walked five Chicago hitters.
Although San Diego has struggled against right-handed pitching this season, stat Juan Soto has thrived with a .280 average and .553 slugging percentage. Although he's been cold of late, a hot stretch from Fernando Tatis Jr. (.360 AVG/18 total bases over his last six games) and the Padres should be able to put up runs in bunches tonight.
Final Cubs-Padres Prediction & Pick
Given Blake Snell's struggles and the Padres' inability to hit right-handed pitching, look for the Cubs to at the very least keep things close tonight – although it wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.
Final Cubs-Padres Prediction & Pick: Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-140)
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