The Dallas Cowboys will once again attempt to end a long Super Bowl drought and bring home the Lombardi Trophy. It's time to look at our NFL odds series, and make a Cowboys over-under win total prediction and pick for the 2023 season.
The Cowboys went 12-5 in 2022 for the second season in a row, and it ended with disappointment again. Initially, things started as bad as it could get as Dak Prescott went down with an injury in a pathetic season-opening loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But the Cowboys stunned people who predicted their downfall by going 4-1 in the five games where backup Cooper Rush filled in for Prescott. Significantly, one of those victories included a Week 2 upset victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. Prescott returned and led the Cowboys to an 8-3 finish, including a 6-0 record at AT&T Stadium over the final six home games.
The Cowboys defeated the Bucs 31-14 at Raymond James Stadium in the wildcard round to set up a playoff rematch with the San Francisco 49ers. Unfortunately, they fell 19-12 to the 49ers, marking the second year in a row the 49ers eliminated them from the postseason.
The Cowboys made some additions in the offseason to boost their core, signing wide receiver Brandon Cooks. Significantly, Cooks had 59 receptions for 699 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games for the Texans. He should provide support for Ceedee Lamb, adding another threat to the pass-catching threats.
Cornerback Stephen Gilmore signed with the Cowboys and now helps make the secondary the best position group on the team. Therefore, look for the defense to excel on the back end.
The Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliot, who was a great short-yardage running back for the Cowboys in 2022. Moreover, he scored 12 touchdowns. The Cowboys drafted Deuce Vaughn in the sixth round to replace him.
Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 9.5 wins: -154
Under 9.5 wins: +124
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Why Dallas Can Win 9.5 Games
The Cowboys have so much talent on this team and should have made it to the NFC Championship game by now. Thus, look for that talent to run it back with the hope of making noise in the playoffs.
Prescott tossed for 2,860 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. Ultimately, he must stay healthy and cut down the turnovers. Running back Tony Pollard will be the bell cow after rushing for 1,007 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022. Additionally, he is coming back from a fractured ankle and will be ready for Week 1. Lamb had 107 catches for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns. Now, he expects to do more with the addition of Cooks freeing him up a little.
The defense remains stout, with Micah Parsons generating 13.5 sacks in 2022. Also, Dorance Armstrong had 8.5 sacks last season. DeMarcus Lawrence also generated six sacks. Meanwhile, the secondary continued to produce.
The Cowboys will win 10 games because they have the ability to put up points and defend efficiently. Moreover, they can compete with any team in the NFL.
Why Dallas Can Not Win 9.5 Games
The first issue to address with the Cowboys is the elephant in the room. Yes, I am referring to coach Mike McCarthy. He is on the hot seat because many of his game-management decisions have prevented the Cowboys from advancing any further than the Divisional Round.
Prescott must do better, as he threw 15 interceptions. Likewise, he must have protection. Every member on the offensive line is questionable except for right guard Zach Martin and center Tyler Biasdasz. Thus, expect to see left tackle Tyler Smith get some work in.
Linebackers are among the few weaknesses on this team. Significantly, the 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles repeatedly gashed them on the ground. Leighton Vander Esch is the only reliable player on that unit. Ultimately, Damone Clark had a decent rookie season but must do more.
The special teams have some hiccups. Likewise, the Cowboys are trying to answer who will kick the ball. It is a question they must answer before Week 1 rolls around. Moreover, a good kicker will help them secure close games.
The Cowboys will not win 10 games because McCarthy is not as good as the other coaches on the best teams in the NFC. Likewise, Prescott will continue to struggle, and the defense will continue to fail to stop the run.
Final Dallas Cowboys Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Cowboys went 4-1 without Prescott. Thus, it makes me believe they can weather a storm and cover the odds. Will they win in the playoffs? Well, that is not the point of this article. The Cowboys cover the spread for regular season wins.
Final Dallas Cowboys Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 9.5 wins: -154
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