It is the final game of a three-game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Brewers prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
After winning the first game of the series in dominating fashion, the Diamondbacks lost game two. In the first game, the Diamondbacks got to Corbin Burnes early, scoring six runs off of him in the first inning. The Diamondbacks loaded the bases with their first three batters, and a Christian Walker walk brought home the first run. Lourdes Gurries Jr. singled for the next run, and Emmanuel Rivera hit into a fielders choice for the third. Then Alek Thomas hit a three-run home run to cap the six-run inning. It was more than enough as Merrill Kelly went seven innings, giving up just one run to get his ninth win of the season.
Game two started in a similar fashion Corbin Carroll drove in a run in the first and Ketel Marte hit a three-run blast in the second to open up a large lead. This time, the lead was not enough though. Luis Urias drove in a run for the Brewers in the second to make it 4-1. Jesse Winker hit a two-run home run in the fourth to close the gap to just one. Jake McCarthy would drive in another run in the sixth to reopen the lead to two runs, but Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Willy Adames would drive in a combined four runs in the seventh to give the Brewers the lead. The bullpen would close it out with two strong innings, setting up the rubber match today.
Here are the Diamondbacks-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Brewers Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+112)
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-134)
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-106)
How To Watch Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
TV: BSAZ/BSWI
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 2:10 PM ET/ 11:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
The Diamondbacks sit in first place in the NL West with a 44-30 record on the year. A big reason for that has been the offense. They are fifth in runs scored this year, while sitting fourth in batting average, seventh in OBP, and fifth in slugging. This offense is led by Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker. Carroll is ninth in the majors this year with a .303 batting average while hitting a 13th-ranked 16 home runs. His power has been amazing this month. While hitting .338 on the month, Carroll has hit seven home runs and drove in 18 RBIs. It is not just the home runs though, he has six doubles and two triples on the month. In total, 15 of his 14 hits this month are for extra bases, an amazing 62.5 percent.
Walker sits right behind Carroll in home runs, hitting 15 this year. He is tied for 12th in the majors with 49 RBIs as well. He is continuing that in June. While hitting .358 this month, Walker has driven in 14 runs, while hitting three home runs and 10 doubles. He has even stolen a base for good measure. They may need to score plenty of runs to get a win though, as the pitching staff has been sub-par. Diamondbacks pitchers have a 21st-ranked team ERA, 22nd-ranked WHIP, and 24th-ranked opponent batting average. This has led many to believe they will be looking for pitching at the deadline.
The Diamondbacks send out their ace in this game. Zac Gallen takes the mound with his 8-2 record and 2.96 ERA. Gallen's last time out was a nice bounceback. He went seven innings giving up six hits. One of those hits was a solo home run and that was the only run of the game he surrendered. It got him his eighth win of the season and brought his ERA under 3.00 for the year. Still, he has had some trouble with homers as of late, giving up homers in his last three starts. Guys are hitting better off him as well. So far in June, he has given up six or more hits in all three starts. He did that in just four of his prior 12 starts before that. If Gallen can lessen the hits, the Diamondbacks are the pick over the Brewers.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
While the Diamondbacks offense has been solid this year, the Brewers have not. The Brewers are 26th in runs scored, 28th in batting average, 25th in OBP, and 27th in slugging. Regardless of how bad the offense has been, the pitching has been solid, especially the staters. The Brewers are ninth in quality start percentage this year. Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta are leading the way in that category, but Julio Theran is helping out a lot. He has only made five starts this year, but four of them have been quality.
Teheran will be getting the start for the Brewers in this one today. He is 2-2 on the season with a 1.78 ERA. Even more impressive is his 0.82 WHIP on the season. Teheran has only made five starts so far this year but has been impressive. He has given up two or fewer runs in every start this year. He also has had great command, not walking more than one batter in any start this year. In his two losses this year, he received zero runs of support. If he gets run support, the odds of the Diamondbacks beating the Brewers go down tremendously.
Hoping to give Teheran some run support will be Brian Anderson. Anderson leads the team in RBIs this year with 34. He has struggled in June though. This month he is hitting just .196 while driving in just four runs. Over the last week, run production has come from William Contreras. He has four RBIs in the last six games, and six overall on the month. He is hitting .245 on the month and has also smashed two home runs. Jesse Winker is also giving some production as well. He missed the start of June, but in his four games back he has driven in three runs.
Final Diamondbacks-Brewers Prediction & Pick
This game will come down to how well the Diamondbacks can get to Julio Teheran. If they can do to Teheran what they did to Burnes, the Diamondbacks should get the win with Gallen on the mound. If not, it will be a low-scoring and difficult game. There is nothing to suggest that the Diamondbacks will be able to do that with ease. There is also nothing to suggest the Brewers will give Teheran any kind of run support. The prediction is a low score in this Diamondbacks-Brewers match-up with the Diamondbacks covering.
Final Diamondbacks-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+112) and Under 8 (-106)
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