The time has finally come and the headlining Main Event of UFC 305 is finally upon us from Perth, Western Australia. We'll see a battle for the UFC Middleweight (185) Championship as bitter rivals will finally meet to settle the score. Champion Dricus Du Plessis will defend his belt against former champion and No. 2 contender Israel Adesanya. Check out our UFC odds series for our Du Plessis-Adesanya prediction and pick.
Dricus Du Plessis (21-2) has gone a perfect 7-0 since 2020 en route to becoming the UFC Middleweight Champion. He took out Robert Whittaker in blistering fashion to earn his title shot, which he capitalized on by beating Sean Strickland in a close split decision. Now, he'll have his first title defense against the man that called him out years ago. The Champion stands 6'1″ with a 76-inch reach.
Israel Adesanya (24-3) has gone 13-3 inside of the UFC since 2018. After recapturing the Middleweight strap and effectively ending his saga with Alex Pereira, Adesanya lost the belt in his championship defense against Sean Strickland. After taking some much-needed time away from competition, Adesanya has been waiting patiently to exact his revenge against one specific opponent. He stands 6'4″ with a 80-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 305 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 305 Odds: Dricus Du Plessis-Israel Adesanya Odds
Dricus Du Plessis: -102
Israel Adesanya: -118
Over 4.5 rounds: +105
Under 4.5 rounds: -135
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Why Dricus Du Plessis Will Win
Dricus Du Plessis is heading into his first title defense as champion supremely confident he can run through Israel Adensanya just as he has against the rest of the division. His fight against Robert Whittaker wasn't particularly close and Du Plessis has a knack for running through his opponents and exhausting them with his constant pressure. He doesn't take any breaks in advancing forward and his massive fists allow him to generate a ton of power behind his punches. He's also a physical freak and his size was apparent against the likes of Whittaker and Strickland. His title capture was a close call, but it was once again the forward pressure and optics for Du Plessis that got him the win.
To be successful here, Dricus Du Plessis will have to be intentional with his entries and keep his defense sound to avoid getting caught by a sniper like Adesanya. Du Plessis doesn't typically worry about his opponent's counter punching, but he may have to be more diligent throughout this fight. Still, pressure is the name of his game and we could see him employ the same tactics against someone who likes to work in space like Adesanya.
Why Israel Adesanya Will Win
It was clear that Israel Adesanya took his fight against Sean Strickland too soon and the wear-and-tear from his series with Alex Pereira became apparent during that fight. His brief layoff from the sport was much-needed and the expectation is that he's taken the time to get his mental clarity and return to his championship mindset. When looking at pure striking, there's probably no one better in the world than Israel Adesanya and his ability to set traps and catch opponents remains as his best skills. Against a forward-marching fighter like Du Plessis, Adesanya will be waiting to land his counter shots when he sees the openings.
Adesanya will be working with a reach advantage here and he should look to utilize his kicking game in keeping Du Plessis at a safe distance. Adesanya is also known for his takedown defense, so expect him to have to fend off the attempts from Du Plessis throughout this one. He's been very confident in this matchup for quite some time, so fully expect Adesanya to return to his roots and turn in a striking masterclass in this championship fight.
Final Dricus Du Plessis-Israel Adesanya Prediction & Pick
This will be a championship bout for the ages and given the recent history between these two, no love will be lost in the octagon come Saturday. This will be Du Plessis' first title defense and he'll be looking to run through the striking game of Israel Adesanya. His in-your-face style and ability to walk through punches gives him a huge confidence boost against a cerebral striker like Adesanya.
Israel Adesanya, however, has been resting ahead of this fight and we can expect to see the best version of him ahead of this one. He may have fallen into a rut facing Alex Pereira so many times, but it's clear there's something about this opportunity he couldn't pass up. Du Plessis seems like the perfect opponent he can work his striking against and catch coming in too eagerly.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Israel Adesanya to get the win. His ability to escape danger and managed the distance will be a huge advantage over Du Plessis. Furthermore, many of Du Plessis last opponents have been at a size disadvantage, which only becomes more imposing when he's blitzing them with his striking. Israel Adesanya is a much bigger opponent and we could see his height and reach become a problem for the champ in this one. Let's roll with Israel Adesanya to win back his belt here.
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Final Dricus Du Plessis-Israel Adesanya Prediction & Pick: Israel Adesanya (-118)
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